未来气候变化下嫩江流域生态流量与生物多样性演变预估  

Changes in Ecological Flow and Biodiversity under Future Climate Change in the Nengjiang River Basin

作　　者：马秋生 陈末 孙佳豪 章清松 吴燕锋[3] MA Qiu-sheng;CHEN Mo;SUN Jia-hao;ZHANG Qing-song;WU Yan-feng(School of Hydraulic and Electric Power,Heilongjiang University,Harbin 150080,China;Institute of Groundwater in Cold Region,Heilongjiang,Harbin 150080,China;Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Changchun,Jilin 130102,China,Changchun,130102,China)

机构地区：[1]黑龙江大学水利电力学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080 [2]黑龙江大学寒区地下水研究所,黑龙江哈尔滨150080 [3]中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,吉林长春130102

出　　处：《水生态学杂志》2025年第2期82-90,共9页Journal of Hydroecology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3200203);国家自然科学基金(421010514,42207088)。

摘　　要：分析嫩江流域未来气候变化下的生态流量变化和生物多样性演变,为流域水资源管理和水生态系统保护提供科学依据。以嫩江流域为研究对象,以大赉水文站近55年的日径流量数据和基于CMIP6气候情景数据,利用率定后的HYDROTEL模型,在模拟未来日径流量的基础上,采用水文变异指标法评估未来生态流量、环境流量和生物多样性的变化。研究表明,与历史时期比较,在未来SSP126、SSP370和SSP585这3种气候情景下,嫩江流域水文指标将发生较大改变,来水不确定性增大,生态流量稳定性降低,SSP126和SSP370情境下总改变程度分别为69%和75%。环境流枯水流量事件和高脉冲流量事件频率在不同情景下均有增加,SSP126情景下增加3.23%和0.54%,SSP370情景下增加7.56%和0.38%,SSP585情景下增加8.01%和1.02%。嫩江流域环境流组成中大部分流量过程归入枯水流量和高流量脉冲事件,流量变化范围缩小,组成趋于单一。与历史时期比较(生物多样性指数均值为0.29),未来气候变化下,嫩江流域生物多样性呈增加趋势,在SPP126、SSP137和SSP585情景下生物多样性指数均值分别为0.39、0.36和0.37。Climate change alters runoff mechanisms,which in turn leads to changes in ecological flow and biodiversity.However,changes in ecological flow and biodiversity under future climate change remain largely unknown.In this study,the Nenjiang River Basin was used as the study area,and the hydrological variability index method was used to assess the future changes in ecological flow,environmental flow and biodiversity based on the simulated daily runoff driver by the CMIP6 climate scenario-based data using the calibrated HYDROTEL model.The study showed that compared with the historical period,the hydrological indicators will change considerably under the three future climate scenarios(SSP126,SSP370,and SSP585),with increasing uncertainty of water inflow and reducing stability of ecological flows.The total degree of change will be 69%and 75%under the SSP126 and SSP370 scenarios,respectively.The frequency of ambient streamflow depletion flow events and high pulse flow events would increase by 3.23%and 0.54%under the SSP126 scenario;by 7.56%and 0.38 per cent under the SSP370 scenario;and by 8.01%and 1.02%under the SSP585 scenario.Most of the flow processes in the environmental flow composition of the Nenjiang River Basin will be classified as dry flow and high flow pulse events,and the range of flow variability is shrinking,with a gradual homogenisation of the environmental flow composition.Comparing with the historical period(the mean value of biodiversity index is 0.29),the biodiversity of the Nenjiang River Basin will tend to increase under the future climate change,and the mean value of biodiversity index will be 0.39,0.36 and 0.37 under the scenarios of SPP126,SSP137 and SSP585,respectively.The results of this study can provide a scientific basis for the future water resources management and aquatic ecosystem protection of the Nenjiang River Basin.

关 键 词：生态流量 环境流量 气候变化 生物多样性 嫩江流域 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源] X143[环境科学与工程—环境科学]