“双碳”目标下生态安全屏障区县域单元碳排放的时空分异特征及影响因素研究 ——以黄河流域为例  

Research on the Spatiotemporal Differentiation Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions from County-level Units in Ecological Security Barrier Areas under the“Dual Carbon Target”

作　　者：张永芳[1] ZHANG Yongfang(School of Business,Xinxiang University,Xinxiang,Henan 453000,China)

机构地区：[1]新乡学院商学院,河南新乡453000

出　　处：《贵州财经大学学报》2025年第2期94-102,共9页Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金面上项目:农村居民消费提质的异质性收入分析及增收政策效应研究(2019M653536);河南省软科学研究项目:“双碳”目标下黄河流域县域单元碳排放的时空分异特征及影响因素研究(242400411151);河南省社会科学规划决策咨询项目:黄河流域生态韧性与高质量发展适配机制研究(2024JC082)。

摘　　要：黄河流域作为中国重要的生态屏障和经济带,长期面临经济发展滞后、温室气体大量排放、土地资源破坏、生态脆弱等多重困境,在“双碳”目标背景下实现黄河流域绿色高质量发展任重而道远。基于2000—2021年黄河流域县域碳排放的面板数据,采用空间相关性分析法和地理探测器分析法,探究黄河流域县域碳排放的时空演变格局及影响因素。研究结果表明:2000—2021年期间黄河流域县域碳排放总量不断提高,其中以内蒙古自治区和河南省碳排放量高居首位,青海省碳排放量低居末位。各流域碳排放年均增长量呈现“上游提高、中下游保持”的总体态势。黄河流域县域碳排放高高集聚区(H-H)集中在以青州市、汝州市、固阳县等为代表的黄河流域中下游地区,并沿黄河流域两岸呈现高碳排“簇状”分布的聚集特征;低低集聚区(L-L)主要集中在以迭部县、宕昌县、宜君县等为代表的黄河流域中上游。固定资产投资水平对黄河流域上游、下游县域地区碳排放影响力度最强,黄河流域中游地区碳排放影响因素最强的为第二产业发展水平。Based on panel data of county-level carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2021,this article uses spatial correlation analysis and geographic detector analysis to explore the spatiotemporal evolution pattern and influencing factors of county-level carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin.The research results show that the total carbon emissions of counties in the Yellow River Basin have continuously increased from 2000 to 2021,with Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Henan Province ranking first in carbon emissions,and Qinghai Province ranking last.The average annual growth rate of carbon emissions shows an overall trend of"Upstream improvement,middle and downstream maintenance".The high carbon emission high concentration areas(H-H)in counties of the Yellow River Basin are mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin,represented by Qingzhou City,Ruzhou City,and Guyang County,and exhibit a high carbon emission concentration characteristic of"clustered"distribution along both banks of the basin along the Yellow River Basin;The Low Low Agglomeration Areas(L-L)are mainly concentrated in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin,represented by Diebu County,Dangchang County,and Yijun County.The level of fixed assets investment has the greatest impact on the upstream and downstream counties of the Yellow River basin,and the development level of the secondary industry has the greatest impact on the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin.

关 键 词：县域碳排放 ESDA数据分析法 黄河流域 地理探测器法 

分 类 号：F270.4[经济管理—企业管理]