实体企业现金持有变化与系统性风险  

Changes in Cash Holdings of Non-Financial Firms and Systemic Risks

作　　者：罗宏[1] 刘天红 陈韵竹 LUO Hong;LIU Tian-hong;CHEN Yun-zhu(School of Accounting,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics;College of Economics and Management,Southwest University)

机构地区：[1]西南财经大学会计学院 [2]西南大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2025年第2期156-174,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“会计信息对地方政府隐性债务风险的预测价值研究”(批准号22XJA790006)。

摘　　要：有效的风险预警对于提前识别和及时防范系统性金融风险至关重要。本文将实体企业会计信息纳入系统性风险的预测框架,探究了企业现金持有变化所蕴含的前瞻性风险信息,及其在银行业系统性风险预测中的增量价值。研究发现,企业现金持有变化能够预测银行业系统性风险,体现为汇总现金增长与未来银行业系统性风险正相关。现金持有变化的预测功能源于企业的预防性动机,而代理动机的存在会削弱这种预测作用。机制检验表明,汇总现金变化主要通过对未来宏观经济走势与银行信用风险的前瞻性反映发挥预测作用。进一步分析发现,汇总现金变化在不同经济周期具有差异化预测功能,且其预测效度受到宏观审慎政策和金融结构的影响。研究还显示,与已有预测指标相比,汇总现金变化具有较强的增量预测能力。本文的研究结论表明,由微观实体企业会计信息构建的汇总现金变化指标具有对银行业系统性风险的增量预测价值,这对于完善系统性风险预警体系和化解潜在风险具有积极意义。Since the financial crisis in 2008,preventing and defusing systemic financial risks has been the focus of regulatory authorities and researchers.Historical experience has demonstrated that constructing an effective early warning system is a crucial measure for identifying and preventing systemic risks.High-quality information sources are fundamental prerequisites for ensuring the robust functionality of such early warning systems.Historically,China's financial system has been predominantly bank-centric.As the core of the financial system,the banking sector consequently aggregates the primary systemic risks.Therefore,enhancing and optimizing the early warning information sources of banking systemic risks is paramount for maintaining financial stability and safeguarding national security.Existing research on systemic risks'early warning has predominantly relied on macroeconomic and financial indicators as information sources.This paper integrates corporate accounting information into the predictive framework for systemic risks,which is significant for expanding predictive indicators,enhancing the timeliness and accuracy of predictions,and thus defusing potential risks.Leveraging the forward-looking nature and risk sensitivity of changes in corporate cash holdings,this paper investigates the incremental value of aggregate cash changes of non-financial listed firms in predicting banking systemic risks.The findings reveal that changes in corporate cash holdings can predict banking systemic risks,as evidenced by a positive correlation between aggregate cash growth and future banking systemic risks.The predictive power of cash holdings stems from firms'precautionary motives,while agency motives tend to diminish this predictive effect.Mechanism tests indicate that aggregate cash changes primarily exert their predictive role through forward-looking reflections of future macroeconomic trends and bank credit risks.Further analysis shows that aggregate cash changes exhibit differential predictive power across different econo

关 键 词：系统性风险 现金持有变化 汇总现金增长 预防性动机 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]