基于复杂网络对1811年新疆阿克苏洪涝事件及社会响应过程的研究  

Analysis on flood event and its social response in 1811 Aksu,Xinjiang based on complex network

作　　者：王理民 张莉 李屹凯 WANG Limin;ZHANG Li;LI Yikai(Northwest Institute of Historical Environment and Socio-Economic Development,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi an 710119,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学西北历史环境与经济社会发展研究院,陕西西安710119

出　　处：《陕西师范大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第2期26-36,共11页Journal of Shaanxi Normal University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：科技部第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2022xjkk0300);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(22JJD770020,22JJD770055)。

摘　　要：洪涝事件是威胁人类社会高质量发展的关键因素。全面分析历史时期的典型洪涝事件及社会响应过程,可以深入理解长时段人地关系的演变特点,能够为防范当前及未来洪涝事件风险提供历史视角。首先,利用历史文献等资料,重建1811年阿克苏洪涝事件从自然系统到支撑系统和人文系统的时空过程;其次,采用社会网络分析法,分析此次洪涝事件的影响程度及社会响应力度、关键节点及其功能。结果表明:1)此次洪涝事件发生在相对暖湿的气候背景下,是极端降水、地势低洼等多因素综合作用的结果。2)此次洪涝事件影响及社会响应过程共识别出26个节点、73条关系链;“内涝”“粮食生产受损”“基础设施损毁”“饥民”是洪涝事件影响人类社会的关键节点,也是人类社会有效阻断或抑制洪涝事件影响程度加深的关键方向。3)依据人类社会响应过程随时间推移的变化,将社会响应过程分为调整过程和适应过程;前者有效避免了灾后恶性事件的发生,后者可能提高了阿克苏城抵御未来洪涝事件风险的能力,对于稳定区域社会经济发展有重要作用。The flood event has always been endangered high-quality development as for human society.Reconstructing and analyzing the impact-response process of the past flood events would be helpful to realize the mechanism and process of extreme climate events to human response,which could improve the adaptive capacity for natural disasters among human beings.In this study,archives and other historical documents were collected to reconstruct the spatial and temporal process of the flood event in 1811 Aksu.Furthermore,26 points and 73 lines were extracted from above documents to reconstruct the impact-response process of this flood event,and social network analysis was applied to analyse the patterns of human interactions with climate change in the arid region.The main conclusions are as follows:1)The flood event in 1811 Aksu was happened in the background of climate warming and humidification,and the interaction within the natural system among constant rainfall,ice and snow melt water,steep terrain exacerbated the impact of this flood event.2)The main high-risk areas centralized in the Aksu city and adjacent villages,farmland.It was partly because the lower terrain and intense populations,various commodities near the city were prone to suffered by flood and waterlogging.3)The flood affected the supporting system and population subsystem directly and indirectly affected the population subsystem,economic subsystem and social subsystem.In this process,there were 4 points(urban waterlogging,food production damaged,infrastructure damaged,famine)represented the main impacts of this flood event.4)The human responses changed over time influenced by different disaster phases,including adjustment and adaption,which jointly effected to avoid the occurrence of post-disaster malignant events.And people constructed flood control engineering to prevent the occurrence of flood events that maintained the security and stability in northwestern frontier society during the middle and late Qing dynasty.

关 键 词：历史洪涝事件 档案资料 干旱区 社会网络分析 阿克苏 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]