哈长城市群耕地利用转型与县域城乡融合耦合协调的时空演进及驱动因素  

Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors in coupling coordination of cultivated land use transformation and county-level urban-rural integration in Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration

作　　者：潘子纯 田蓬鹏 马鹏超 马林燕 朱玉春[1] PAN Zichun;TIAN Pengpeng;MA Pengchao;MA Linyan;ZHU Yuchun(College of Economics&Management,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China;School of Economics and Management,Xi’an University of Posts&Telecommunications,Xi’an 710061,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,杨凌712100 [2]西安邮电大学经济与管理学院,西安710061

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2025年第3期228-239,共12页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(22&ZD113);中央引导地方科技发展资金(2024ZY-JCYJ-02-08);陕西省哲学社会科学研究专项(2024ZD484)。

摘　　要：耕地利用转型与县域城乡融合是彼此协同的有机体,揭示二者耦合协调的时空演进及驱动因素对于促进耕地高效利用和县域城乡融合高质量发展具有重大意义。基于2011—2021年哈长城市群63县(县级市)的统计数据,采用熵值法和耦合协调度模型分别测算耕地利用转型指数、县域城乡融合发展水平及二者的耦合协调度,在分析耦合协调度时空演进特征的基础上,进一步采用空间统计、空间计量模型探究二者耦合协调度的空间自相关特征及驱动因素。结果表明:1)2011—2021年哈长城市群耕地利用转型与县域城乡融合的耦合协调度呈上升态势,并在空间上显现出均衡演化的格局。此外,从耦合协调度的分类来看,中度协调区域数量仍然较少,仅占比31.746%,高度协调区域则未能出现,表明二者的耦合协调度仍有待提升。2)2011—2021年哈长城市群耕地利用转型与县域城乡融合耦合协调度的全局Moran’s I显著为正,且数值集中在区间[0.184,0.385]内,呈现出明显的空间正相关特征。局部地区也已形成空间分化,高高集聚区呈北移趋势,主要分布在松原、绥化、齐齐哈尔等地,低低集聚区的分布较为稳定,位于延边朝鲜族自治州。3)哈长城市群耕地利用转型与县域城乡融合的耦合协调度受到自然环境、市场条件、政府因素等的综合影响。其中,坡度、财政分权对耦合协调度影响的直接效应及间接效应均为负,人均GDP、产业高级化指数、农业机械化水平的直接效应及间接效应均为正。最后,从把握耕地利用转型与县域城乡融合的耦合机制、探索耦合协调度提升的差异化路径、关注影响耦合协调度提升的具体因素等方面,提出对策建议。A coupling coordination can often be found in the cultivated land use transformation and the urban-rural integration at the county level.It is of great significance to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors between them,in order to promote the cultivated land and the high-quality urban-rural integration.The Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration is one of the most important grain production regions in China.However,there was the serious degradation of cultivated land quality and the aggravation of soil erosion in this region in recent years,due to the influence of irrational agricultural production and cultivated land use.The urban-rural integration can be confined to the large-scale and intensive use of cultivated land.It is still lacking on the mutual promotion between the transformation of cultivated land use and the urban-rural integration at the county level.Taking the Harbin-Changchun urban agglomeration as a typical area,this study aims to explore the coupling coordination between them.The statistical data of 63 counties(county-level cities) was collected from 2011 to 2021.The entropy and the coupling coordination degree model were used to measure the cultivated land use transition index,the level of urban-rural integration development at the county level,as well as the coupling coordination degree.The results show that:1) An upward trend was observed in the coupling coordination degree of cultivated land use transformation and urban-rural integration at the county level from 2011 to 2021.A balanced evolution pattern was achieved in space.In addition,there were the relatively small areas of moderate coordination after the classification of coupling coordination.The moderate coordination areas were accounted for only 31.746%.There was no highly coordination area.The coupling coordination degree was expected to be improved.2) There was the significantly positive global Moran's I for the coupling coordination degree of cultivated land use transformation and urban-rural integration.The specific

关 键 词：耕地利用转型 县域城乡融合 耦合协调度 时空演进 驱动因素 哈长城市群 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]