基于超短期预测的区域综合能源系统冲击响应调控策略  

Regulation Strategy of Impact Response of Regional Integrated Energy System Based on Ultra Short Term Prediction

作　　者：杨家辉 杨逸凡 孙明宇[1] 季振亚 王维 YANG Jiahui;YANG Yifan;SUN Mingyu;JI Zhenya;WANG Wei(School of Electrical and Automation Engineering,Nanjing Normal University,Nanjing 210046)

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学电气与自动化工程学院,南京210046

出　　处：《电气工程学报》2025年第1期239-249,共11页Journal of Electrical Engineering

基　　金：江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(BK20190710)。

摘　　要：综合能源系统可通过协同调度各设备能源机组为用户提供优质可靠的负荷需求,但系统内不断增加的冲击性负荷使得运行系统预测难度直线上升、供能可靠性急剧下滑。针对该问题,提出一种基于超短期预测的区域综合能源系统冲击响应调控策略。首先,建立了综合能源物理模型和停电事故场景模型,并构架了多能耦合子系统;然后,建立基于长短期记忆网络和支持向量机的超短期预测模型,通过滚动优化、实时反馈矫正实施分层调度优化;最后,以某园区综合能源系统历史数据为例进行仿真。算例结果表明,所提方法有效提高了系统的预测精度和负荷调度效率。The comprehensive energy system can provide users with high-quality and reliable load demand through collaborative scheduling of various equipment energy units,but the increasing impact load within the system has led to a sharp increase in the difficulty of operating system prediction and a sharp decline in high energy supply reliability.Aiming at this problem,a shock response regulation strategy of regional integrated energy system based on ultra-short-term forecast is proposed.Firstly,a comprehensive energy physics model and a power outage scenario model are established,and a multi energy coupling subsystem is constructed.Then,the ultra short term prediction model based on long short-term memory network and support vector machine is established,and hierarchical scheduling optimization is implemented through rolling optimization and real-time feedback correction.Finally,the historical data of a comprehensive energy system in a certain park is taken as an example for simulation.The calculation results show that the proposed method effectively improves the system prediction accuracy and load scheduling efficiency.

关 键 词：综合能源系统 长短期记忆网络 支持向量机 超短期预测 滚动优化 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]