基于PCR荧光探针法的粪便幽门螺杆菌检测阳性风险预测模型与验证  

Construction and validation of a prediction model for positive risk of fecal Helicobacter pylori based on PCR fluorescent probe method

作　　者：赵辛欣 刘世育 陈光侠 ZHAO Xinxin;LIU Shiyu;CHEN Guangxia(Department of Gastroenterology,the Affiliated Municipal Hospital of Xuzhou Medical University,Xuzhou,Jiangsu 221002,China)

机构地区：[1]徐州医科大学附属徐州市立医院消化内科,江苏徐州221002

出　　处：《徐州医科大学学报》2025年第2期116-122,共7页Journal of Xuzhou Medical University

基　　金：徐州市重点研发计划(社会发展)项目(KC22095);徐州市重点研发计划(社会发展)项目—医药卫生面上项目(KC22111);徐州市卫生健康委青年创新科技面上项目(XWKYHT20220073);江苏省科教强卫工程(QNRCQNRC2016368)。

摘　　要：目的通过对社区人群进行粪便幽门螺杆菌(HP)筛查及生活资料收集,使用统计学方法研究上述因素与HP的相关性,为早期HP筛查及早期治疗提供临床依据。方法选择2024年3月—2024年6月在徐州市铜山区文沃社区卫生服务中心进行体检的364例社区体检人员,粪便HP检测结果为阳性(129例)与阴性(235例),根据8∶2比例分为训练集与验证集,采用二分类logistics回归分析生活习惯、慢性病史、临床症状与HP阳性的相关性,并采用受试者操作特征(ROC)曲线评价其预测作用。结果多因素方差分析得出肥胖、吸烟、饮酒、高脂血症病史、2型糖尿病变量(OR>1,P<0.05)差异有统计学意义,可纳入二分类logistics回归建模。训练集曲线下面积(AUC)=0.806,验证集AUC=0.881,均>0.7,有一定预测价值。结论肥胖、吸烟、饮酒、高脂血症、2型糖尿病为HP感染的致病因素,对HP阳性结果具有一定预测价值。Objective To investigate the correlation between Helicobacter pylori(HP)infection and lifestyle factors through conducting fecal HP screening and collecting lifestyle data in a community population,in order to provide clinical evidence for early HP screening and treatment.Methods A total of 364 community individuals who underwent health check-up at Wenwo Community Health Service Center in Tongshan District,Xuzhou,between March and June 2024,were selected.According to fecal HP test results,there were 129 positive patients and 235 negative patients,who were then divided into the training set and the validation set at a ratio of 8∶2.Binary logistic regression analysis was conducted to evaluate the correlation between lifestyle habits,chronic disease history,clinical symptoms,and HP positivity.Meanwhile,receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves were plotted to evaluate the predictive performance of the model.Results Multivariate analysis indicated statistical differences in obesity,smoking,alcohol consumption,hyperlipidemia history,and type 2 diabetes(OR>1,P<0.05).These variables were included for constructing the binary logistic regression model.The area under curve(AUC)was 0.806 for the training set,and 0.881 for the validation set(both>0.7),indicating certain predictive value.Conclusions Obesity,smoking,alcohol consumption,hyperlipidemia,and type 2 diabetes are pathogenic factors for HP infection,with certain predictive value for positive HP outcomes.

关 键 词：粪便 幽门螺杆菌检测 幽门螺杆菌阳性 感染风险 预测 验证 

分 类 号：R573.6[医药卫生—消化系统]