供给侧结构性改革视角下中小学师资需求预测与供给优化分析  

Demand Forecast and Supply Optimization Analysis of Primary and Secondary School Teachers from the Perspective of Supply-Side Structural Reform

作　　者：潘岳林 荀渊[2] PAN Yuelin;XUN Yuan(Department of Education,East China Normal University,Shanghai,200062,China;Institute of Higher Education,East China Normal University,Shanghai,200062,China)

机构地区：[1]华东师范大学教育学系,上海200062 [2]华东师范大学高等教育研究所,上海200062

出　　处：《教师教育研究》2025年第1期34-41,共8页Teacher Education Research

基　　金：国家社科基金“十三五”规划教育学重点课题“新时代提高教师地位的政策体系研究”(AFA200007)。

摘　　要：结合当前我国教师学历结构以及研究生学历师资供给现状,对标OECD发达国家师资学历数据,对我国高质量师资需求进行预测后发现:预计到2035年我国高学历师资比例能够达到并超过当前OECD国家下分位数水平,但距离当前OECD国家中位数水平还有约150.5万研究生学历师资的缺口。基于此,从供给侧结构性改革角度出发,政府部门应统筹调整各学段师资配置,研制教师分流和退出机制;提高师资培养层次和入职学历要求,拓宽优质师资供给渠道;加大教师队伍质量保障体系建设力度,以保障未来教师供给质量和教育资源合理配置。Based on the current education structure of Chinese teachers and the current supply of postgraduate education teachers, this paper predicts the demand for high-quality teachers in China based on the data of teachers' education in OECD developed countries. It is expected that by 2035, the proportion of highly educated teachers in China will reach and exceed the current lower quantile level of OECD countries, but there is still a gap of about 1.505 million postgraduate teachers from the current median level of OECD countries. Based on this, from the perspective of supply-side structural reform, government departments should coordinate and adjust the allocation of teachers in each school section, and develop the mechanism of teacher diversion and withdrawal. Raise the level of teacher training and education requirements for entry, and expand the supply channels of high-quality teachers;Strengthen the construction of the quality assurance system for teachers to ensure the quality of teacher supply and the rational allocation of educational resources in the future.

关 键 词：师资需求 师资供给 供给侧结构性改革 

分 类 号：G451.2[文化科学—教育学]