城市发展环境压力对碳排放水平的影响效应  

Impact of Environmental Pressure from Urban Development on the Level of Carbon Emissions in Urban Areas

作　　者：覃朝晖[1] 王镕菲 丁志国[2] QIN Zhao-hui;WANG Rong-fei;DING Zhi-guo(College of Economics and Management of China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;School of Business and Management,Jilin University,Changchun 130015,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学经济与管理学院,宜昌443002 [2]吉林大学商学与管理学院,长春130015

出　　处：《环境科学》2025年第3期1473-1481,共9页Environmental Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(21BMZ138);湖北省高校人文社科重点研究基地三峡文化与经济社会发展研究中心开放基金项目(SXKF202204)。

摘　　要：城市发展环境压力与日俱增,碳减排任务难度逐步增大,厘清城市发展环境压力对碳排放水平的影响效应,有助于“双碳”目标的早日达成.研究基于2006~2022年中国内地284个地级市的面板数据,利用可拓展随机的环境影响评估模型测算城市发展环境压力指数.借助固定效应模型和分位数回归模型,实证分析城市发展环境压力对城市碳排放水平的影响.结果表明,城市发展环境压力对碳排放水平有显著的正向影响作用,即城市发展环境压力指数每增加一个单位,城市碳排放水平增加1.4%,结论通过一系列稳健性检验后依旧成立;进一步地,在城市碳排放水平的分位数回归结果中显示,在50%分位点前,城市发展环境压力对碳排放水平有正向影响,而在50%分位点后,城市发展环境压力对碳排放水平有负向影响.异质性分析表明,相对于大型城市,在中小型城市和特大型城市中,城市发展环境压力对碳排放水平的正向影响更为显著.因此,建议持续优化城市发展环境与营商氛围,促进产业结构升级;基于城市发展水平制定差异化碳减排目标,厘清城市发展长板与短板,在不同规模城市因地制宜推行碳减排措施.Due to the increasing and rapid economic and population growth over the past years,urban areas have become the focus of carbon-emission-reduction policies.Meanwhile,they are also continuously subjected to environmental pressure from urban development.Therefore,this study used the STIRPAT model to develop an index to capture the environmental pressure from urban development based on a panel dataset of 284 prefecture cities from 2006 to 2022 in China'Mainland.Subsequently,a fixed effect model and a quantile regression model were used to test the impact of the environmental pressure from urban development on the level of urban carbon emissions.The results showed a notable relationship between the environmental pressure from urban development and the level of urban carbon emissions.More specifically,for every one-unit increase in the index,the urban carbon emission level increased by 1.4%.This result was found stable after a series of robustness tests.Furthermore,quantile regression showed that before the 50th percentile,the environmental pressure from urban development had a positive impact on the level of urban carbon emissions,whereas after the 50th percentile,it had a negative impact.Finally,heterogeneity analysis indicated that,compared to in large cities,the positive impact of the environmental pressure from urban development on urban carbon emission levels was more significant in small-sized,medium-sized,and megacities.Therefore,it is recommended to continuously optimize the context for business and trading and promote the industrial structure.Carbon emission reduction targets should be differentiated based on development levels of cities.While implementing carbon emission reduction measures in urban areas,population and other conditions should be taken into account.

关 键 词：城市发展环境压力 碳排放水平 环境影响评估模型 碳达峰 碳中和 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]