陕西省县域碳盈亏驱动因素及时空异质性  

Temporal and Spatial Heterogeneity and Its Influencing Factors of Carbon Surplus and Deficit at County-Level Areas in Shaanxi Province

作　　者：丁一萌 韩玲[1] 黄馨[1] DING Yi-meng;HAN Ling;HUANG Xin(School of Land Engineering,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学土地工程学院,西安710054

出　　处：《环境科学》2025年第3期1502-1516,共15页Environmental Science

基　　金：陕西省重点研发计划项目(2022ZDLSF07-05)。

摘　　要：碳源/汇监测是实现双碳目标的重要前提,其时空格局演变和驱动因子时空异质性是因地制宜实施减排增汇政策的科学依据,对于区域可持续发展具有重要意义.从土地利用出发,基于碳收支关系计算2000、2010和2020年陕西省县域碳盈亏,采用空间自相关、冷热点分析、标准差椭圆和LISA-时间路径一系列探索性时空分析方法(ESTDA),研究陕西省不同时空尺度碳盈亏动态变化.从21项指标中运用因子分析法聚合出6类主要驱动因素,选用时空地理加权回归模型(GTWR)识别其时空异质性,构建全面剖析陕西省碳盈亏及其时空异质性指标体系.结果表明:①陕西省2000年碳盈余856万t,2010年碳亏损3 296 t,2020年亏损3 334万t,碳排增长速率远大于碳汇,表明陕西省逐步走向碳达峰,但碳中和目标实现任重道远;②从空间上看,呈现出“北亏南盈”的布局,碳亏损集中在长城沿线风沙区和关中平原,有较强的空间聚类特征,重心由南向北再向南转移,时空跃迁特征较稳定,减排增汇工作重点放在陕北区域;③城镇建设、自然资源、人类活动、能源消耗、产业发展和生态保护指标体系中仅有生态保护对碳盈亏产生正向驱动.值得注意的是,自然资源对碳盈亏的影响时空分异性最强,能源消耗在陕西省部分地区产生了正向驱动.研究成果将为陕西省碳中和策略制定提供更精准的政策指导.Carbon source and sink monitoring is an important prerequisite for realizing the dual-carbon target and the evolution of its spatial-temporal pattern and the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of the driving factors are the scientific basis for the implementation of the emission reduction and sink enhancement policy according to the local conditions,which is of great importance for the sustainable development of the region.Based on the carbon balance of payment relationship,the carbon surplus and deficit of Shaanxi Province counties were calculated in 2000,2010,and 2020 from land use,and a series of exploratory spatial and temporal analysis methods(ESTDA),including spatial autocorrelation,cold and hot spot analysis,standard deviation ellipse,and LISA-time pathway,were used to study the dynamics of carbon surplus and deficit in Shaanxi Province at different spatial-temporal scales.From the 21 indicators,six types of major driving factors were selected by principal component analysis,and the geographical spatio-temporal weighted regression model(GTWR)was used to identify their spatio-temporal heterogeneity to construct a comprehensive system of indicators to analyze the carbon deficit and its spatio-temporal heterogeneity in Shaanxi Province.The results showed that:①A carbon surplus of 8.56 million tons in 2000,a carbon deficit of 3296 tons in 2010,and a deficit of 33.34 million tons occurred in 2020 in Shaanxi Province,and the growth rate of carbon emissions was much larger than that of carbon sinks,which indicates that it was gradually moving towards carbon peaks in Shaanxi Province;however,there is a long way to go to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality.②The geographical distribution of the“north deficit and south surplus”phenomenon was visually represented.A carbon deficit was concentrated in the wind and sand area along the Great Wall and Guanzhong plain.The spatial-temporal leap characteristics were more stable.In conclusion,efforts aimed at emission reduction and carbon sink enhancement were strategica

关 键 词：碳盈亏 探索性时空数据分析(ESTDA) 时空地理加权回归模型(GTWR) 驱动因子 陕西省 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]