传染病时间序列分析在传染病监测和早期预警中的应用  

Application of time series analysis in infectious diseases surveillance and early warning system

作　　者：周慧娴 龙前进[1] 邓春燕 吴霜 邓燕 ZHOU Huixian;LONG Qianjin;DENG Chunyan;WU Shuang;DENG Yan(Chongqing Jiulongpo District for Diseases Control and Prevention,Chongqing 400039,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆市九龙坡区疾病预防控制中心,重庆400039

出　　处：《现代疾病预防控制》2025年第2期159-164,共6页MODERN DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION

基　　金：重庆市公共卫生重点专科(学科)建设资助项目(渝卫办发[2023]81号);重庆市九龙坡区公共卫生重点学科和实验室建设经费资助项目(九龙坡卫办发[2023]63号)。

摘　　要：传染病监测预警能力是传染病防控的基石,对传染病的时间序列进行观察、研究,寻找变化规律,可以实现监测疾病发展趋势、发布疫情早期预警和评价传染病防控效果。本文总结了当前传染病监测和早期预警中运用的多种时间序列分析方法的应用情况及研究进展,旨在提高传染病监测预警能力。The ability to monitor and provide early warnings for infectious diseases is crucial for their prevention and control.Time series analysis of infectious disease data can reveal patterns in morbidity rates,enabling the monitoring of disease trends,the issuance of epidemic warnings,and the evaluation of prevention and control measures.This paper reviews the application and research progress of various time series analysis methods in infectious disease surveillance,with the aim of enhancing the monitoring and early warning capacity for infectious diseases.

关 键 词：传染病 时间序列分析 监测预警 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]