青藏高原雨涝指数时空变化特征  

Characteristics of spatial and temporal variations in the flood-waterlogging index on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau

作　　者：王春学[1] 王明田[2,3] 王顺久 谢娜 WANG Chunxue;WANG Mingtian;WANG Shunjiu;XIE Na(Sichuan Climate Center,Chengdu 610072,China;Sichuan Meteorological Observatory,Chengdu 610072,China;Water-Saving Agriculture Research in Southern Hilly Area Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610066,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省气候中心,成都610072 [2]四川省气象台,成都610072 [3]南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室,成都610066

出　　处：《应用与环境生物学报》2024年第6期1064-1071,共8页Chinese Journal of Applied and Environmental Biology

基　　金：第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(2019QZKK0303);国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFD1002202)资助。

摘　　要：全球变暖背景下青藏高原雨涝灾害有逐渐增多趋势,为掌握其变化规律,利用青藏高原1980-2019年逐日降水量资料并引入雨涝指数概念,分析近40年青藏高原雨涝时空变化特征.结果显示:采用降水相当强度计算的雨涝指数与青海和西藏的实际洪涝灾情基本吻合,可以表征青藏高原实际的雨涝情况.青藏高原雨涝空间差异非常大,利用REOF将其分为6个雨涝区域,其中河湟谷地、雅鲁藏布江流域、横断山脉南部和川西高原东侧雨涝日数超过20 d.不同区域的雨涝日数年际变化差异明显,雅鲁藏布江流域和横断山脉南部雨涝日数总体没有明显的变化趋势,其他几个区域的雨涝日数以增加趋势为主,21世纪以来的增加趋势尤其显著.突变检验发现不同区域的雨涝日数年际突变差异很大,突变时间在不同年代均有发生.周期分析发现不同区域雨涝日数周期变化规律各不相同,总体上以2-3年和10-14年周期为主.本研究表明青藏高原主要为轻到中度雨涝,并且区域差异较大,雨涝日数总体上有增加趋势,并且存在突变和周期变化.Under global warming over the last few decades there has been a gradual increase in the frequency of heavy rain events and flooding on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.To more fully understand this trend,the spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation and floods in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau over the past 40 years were analyzed using the daily precipitation data of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from 1980 to 2019.The results show that the flood-waterlogging index calculated using the equivalent intensity of precipitation is consistent with the actual disaster trend in Qinghai and Xizang and can characterize the actual flood and waterlogging situation on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.The flood-waterlogging index shows high spatial variability in this area,which can be divided into six regions using the REOF method,with more than 20 days of flood waterlogging in the Yellow-Huangshui River valley,the Yarlung Zangbo River basin,the southern Hengduan Mountain,and the eastern side of the western Sichuan Plateau.The inter-annual variation in the number of flood-waterlogging days varied significantly from region to region,with no significant overall trend in the number of flood-waterlogging days in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin and southern Hengduan Mountain.There was a predominantly increasing trend in the number of flood-waterlogging days in several other regions,with the increasing trend being particularly significant since the 21st century.The mutation test revealed that the interannual variation in the number of days of flood waterlogging in different regions varied greatly,and the variation occurred in different years.The cycle analysis found that the change pattern of the number of days of flood waterlogging varied in different regions,and in general,cycle of 2-3 years and 10-14 years were dominant.In summary,the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau mainly experiences light to moderate flood waterlogging,and the regional differences are large.The number of days of rain and flooding in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is generally incre

关 键 词：青藏高原 雨涝指数 降水相当强度 突变 周期 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]