风水光多能互补系统可解释性调度规则研究  

Exploring explainable operating rules of water-wind-photovoltaic multi-energy complementary system

作　　者：任康 陈琼[1,2] 陈述 张鑫凯[3] 李智 REN Kang;CHEN Qiong;CHEN Shu;ZHANG Xinkai;LI Zhi(Hubei Key Laboratory of Construction and Management in Hydropower Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;College of Hydraulic&Environmental Engineering,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Shanghai Survey,Design and Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200335,China;China Three Gorges Corporation,Wuhan 430010,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡大学水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [3]上海勘测设计研究院有限公司,上海200335 [4]中国长江三峡集团有限公司,武汉430010

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2025年第3期50-61,共12页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52309025,52479127)。

摘　　要：风水光电多能互补系统改变了水电站的运行条件,导致传统水电调度规则已不再适用。以黄河上游风水光多能互补系统为研究对象,提出了基于自动超参数优化的可解释性决策树调度规则提取方法,提取了同时考虑新能源消纳和河流生态保护的多能互补系统调度规则集。结果表明:多能互补系统的发电量和河流生态保护目标呈现出竞争关系;考虑风水光多能互补系统的综合发电效益时,入库流量是最重要的预测因素;基于自动超参数优化的决策树调度规则提取模型在3种精度评价方面均表现较好,表明基于决策树提取的多能互补系统调度规则精度较高。研究成果可为考虑河流生态保护与发电综合利用需求的多能互补系统运行调度提供参考。The multi-energy complementary system of wind,solar and hydropower has altered the operating conditions of hydropower stations,making the traditional hydropower dispatch rules no longer applicable.We develop a decision tree scheduling rule extraction method based on automatic hyperparameter optimization to examine such a system in the upper reaches of the Yellow River.It extracts a set of scheduling rules for multi-energy complementary systems,while considering new energy consumption and river ecological protection.The results show a competitive relationship exists between the power generation of this system and its river ecological protection goal.And the reservoir inflow is the most important predictor in consideration of its comprehensive power generation benefits.In all three accuracy evaluations,the best is the decision tree scheduling rule extraction model based on automatic hyperparameter optimization,indicating it achieves a significant improvement in accuracy.The research findings help the operation and scheduling of multi-energy complementary systems aimed at river ecological protection and power generation.

关 键 词：多能互补 调度规则 新能源消纳 NSGA-Ⅲ多目标优化算法 决策树 

分 类 号：TV212[水利工程—水文学及水资源]