“大数据、大模型、大计算”全新范式与舆情精准研判:理论和Multi-Agent实证两个向度的探索  

New Paradigm of "Big Data,Large Models,and Advanced Computing" and Precise Public Opinion Analysis :Explorations from Theoretical and Multi-Agent Empirical Perspectives

作　　者：丁晓蔚[1,3,4] 戚庆燕 刘梓航 Ding Xiaowei;Qi Qingyan;Liu Zihang

机构地区：[1]南京大学信息管理学院,江苏南京210023 [2]南京大学普惠三农金融科技创新研究中心,江苏南京210023 [3]江苏紫金传媒智库,江苏南京210023 [4]安徽艺术学院,安徽合肥230011

出　　处：《传媒观察》2025年第2期28-42,共15页Media Observer

基　　金：国家社科基金2024年度一般项目“基于大模型的情报分析在金融监管中的应用研究”(24BTQ062);南京大学文科青年跨学科团队专项“中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目”(010814370112);南京大学文科卓越中长期研究专项“南京大学新时代文科卓越研究计划中长期研究专项资助项目”(010814914215);安徽省高校“三全育人”综合改革和思想政治能力提升计划项目(sztsjh2023614)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：本文探讨了“大数据、大模型、大计算”全新范式在舆情精准研判中的相关理论和应用实证。理论部分论述了该范式的概念和所涉关系,分析了其与Multi-Agent多智能体系统之间的联系。实证部分基于此范式在舆情研判中的应用案例,提出Multi-Agent多智能体协作驱动的舆情分析框架,构建全新的舆情研判流程,能有效应对动态变化的舆情环境。采用Multi-Agent对热点事件是否上热搜进行预测和检验,并与传统大模型和BERT模型进行对比分析。研究表明:Multi-Agent在应对涉及公众情感共鸣和社会性广泛事件时具有显著优势,能通过多角度的综合评估提升预测精度和鲁棒性。通过实证研究验证了Multi-Agent在舆情监测中的重要价值,为未来舆情精准研判提供了新的技术路径。This study explores the theoretical foundations and empirical applications of the emerging paradigm of Big Data,Large Models,and Advanced Computing in precise public opinion analysis. The theoretical section examines the core concepts,their interrelationships,and their role in enhancing public opinion monitoring. Building on this foundation,the author investigates how this paradigm informs the empirical application of multi-agent systems in public opinion governance. In the empirical section,the article proposes a multi-agent collaborative-driven public opinion analysis framework,introducing an adaptive analytical process designed for dynamic public opinion environments. Using a real-world case,it applies a multi-agent system to predict whether a trending topic will reach hot search status,comparing its performance against traditional large models and the BERT model. The findings demonstrate that multi-agent systems significantly outperform existing models,particularly in scenarios involving public emotional resonance and widespread social impact. By integrating multi-dimensional assessments,they enhance both prediction accuracy and robustness. Through empirical validation,this study highlights the pivotal role of multi-agent systems in public opinion monitoring,offering a novel technological pathway for advancing precise public opinion analysis in the digital era.

关 键 词：“大数据、大模型、大计算”全新范式 Multi-Agent多智能体系统 舆情精准研判 

分 类 号：G206[文化科学—传播学]