模拟多情景下淮河生态经济带土地利用变化及生态系统服务价值的空间响应  

Simulating land use changes and spatial response of ecosystem service value in the Huaihe River Eco-Economic Belt under multiple scenarios

作　　者：姚侠妹 盛雨恬 祁慧敏 李蕙竹 姚晓洁 偶春 Yao Xiamei;Sheng Yutian;Qi Huimin;Li Huizhu;Yao Xiaojie;Ou Chun(School of Architecture and Planning,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230601,China;College of Biological and Food Engineering,Fuyang Normal University,Fuyang,Anhui 236037,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽建筑大学建筑与规划学院,合肥230601 [2]阜阳师范大学生物与食品工程学院,安徽阜阳236037

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2025年第3期300-311,共12页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目“淮河生态经济带安徽段生态环境分区识别及长效治理策略研究”(AHSKY2023D023)。

摘　　要：[目的]模拟淮河生态经济带在多情景下的土地利用变化,分析这些变化对生态系统服务价值产生的空间响应及影响,为实现土地资源利用和社会经济协调可持续发展提供科学依据。[方法]以淮河生态经济带为研究对象,基于2000年、2010年和2020年三期土地利用数据,通过耦合MOP-PLUS模型模拟2040年自然发展、经济优先和低碳发展情景下的土地利用演变规律。并计算各情景下生态系统服务价值(ESV),定量分析ESV的时空动态特征。再根据格网尺度的视角剖析ESV的空间分布态势及其集聚特征和识别潜在的服务提升区域。[结果](1)3种预设情景中,经济优先情景下的耕地和林地面积减少程度最大,分别减少1342989 hm^(2),24857 hm^(2);低碳发展情景下林地和水域面积增加程度最大,分别增加117990 hm^(2),442451 hm^(2)。(2)在3种情景模拟下,研究区2040年ESV低碳发展情景(7291.51亿元)>自然发展情景(6583.59亿元)>经济发展情景(6413.77亿元)。(3)低碳发展情景下,研究区的东北部和西南部的热点以及显著热点增多,聚集性较强,而冷点区域主要分布于研究区的中部平原。[结论]对未来土地利用的科学规划与布局,是维护并提升生态环境质量不可或缺的根本途径。通过不同情景比对,低碳发展情景能有效优化土地利用,显著提升淮河生态经济带的生态系统服务价值,增强生态服务潜力,并促进区域生态与经济协调发展。[Objective]Land use changes in the Huaihe River Eco-Economic Belt under multiple scenarios were simulated,and the spatial response and impact of these changes on ecosystem service value were analyzed,providing a scientific basis for achieving coordinated and sustainable development of land resource utilization and social economy.[Methods]Taking the Huaihe River Eco-Economic Belt as the research area,and based on land use data from 2000,2010,and 2020,the land use evolution patterns under the scenarios of natural development,economic priority,and low-carbon development in 2040 were simulated by the coupled MOP-PLUS model.The ecosystem service value(ESV)under each scenario was calculated,and the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of ESV were quantitatively analyzed.Furthermore,from a grid-scale perspective,the spatial distribution of ESV and its aggregation characteristics were analyzed,and areas for potential service enfacement were identified.[Results](1)Among the three preset scenarios,the economic priority scenario exhibited the largest reductions in cropland(1342989 hm^(2))and forestland(24857 hm^(2)),while the low-carbon development scenario showed the largest increases in forestland(117990 hm^(2))and water areas(442451 hm^(2)).(2)Under the three scenarios in 2040,the ESV low-carbon development scenario(7.29151×10^(11) Yuan)>natural development scenario(6.58359×10^(11) Yuan)>economic development scenario(6.41377×10^(11) Yuan)in the study area.(3)Under the low-carbon development scenario,the hot spots and significant hot spots in the northeast and southwest of the study area increased,exhibiting strong aggregation,while the cold spots were mainly distributed in the central plains of the study area.[Conclusion]Scientific planning and management of future land use are fundamental ways to maintain and improve the quality of the ecological environment.By comparing different scenarios,low-carbon development scenario can effectively optimize land use,significantly increase the ecosystem service value of the Hu

关 键 词：低碳 PLUS模型 土地利用变化 生态系统服务 淮河生态经济带 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济] X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]