基于土地利用的鄱阳湖流域碳排放与生态系统服务价值时空耦合关系分析  

Analysis of spatiotemporal coupling relationship between carbon emission and ecosystem service value in Poyang Lake Basin based on land use

作　　者：付帅 徐炳先 彭雨欣 汪鸿波 李秀香[3] Fu Shuai;Xu Bingxian;Peng Yuxin;Wang Hongbo;Li Xiuxiang(College of Taxation and Public Administration,Department of Land Resource Management,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China;Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Water Utilization in Arid Areas,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China;Discipline Innovation Team of Commodity Price Analysis and Forecast,School of International Trade,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China;School of Sociology and Humanities,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学财税与公共管理学院土地资源管理系,南昌330013 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆干旱区水循环与水利用重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830011 [3]江西财经大学国际贸易学院,大宗商品价格分析与预测研究学科创新团队,南昌330013 [4]江西财经大学人文学院,南昌330013

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2025年第3期321-331,342,共12页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42361003,42261045);新疆干旱区水循环与水利用实验室开放课题(XJYS0907-2023-22);江西省教育厅科技项目(GJJ190269);2022年纯净资溪碳中和实践创新中心项目(2022JDA07)。

摘　　要：[目的]量化和分析鄱阳湖流域碳排放与生态系统服务价值(ESV)时空演变特征,探索二者间的时空耦合关系,为促进区域碳中和目标的实现和生态经济的稳步发展提供参考。[方法]以鄱阳湖流域2000—2020年5期遥感影像数据所得到的土地利用数据为基础,综合运用IPCC碳排放系数法、ESV当量因子法、Pearson相关系数以及空间自相关等方法,探索土地利用变化下鄱阳湖流域碳排放与ESV时空耦合关系。[结果](1)2000—2020年鄱阳湖流域土地利用发生了较大转变,其中耕地的转入和转出量均最多,总量相对稳定;林地明显减少,建设用地大幅增加,分别为1282.29 km^(2),1697.04 km^(2)。(2)流域整体属于碳源,净碳排放显著增加,年平均增长17.70%,建设用地起主导作用;碳排放强度低值区分布广泛且占主导地位,高值区主要集中在区域西南部,与城镇分布位置吻合。(3)总ESV缓慢降低,从1800.41亿元减少到1705.73亿元;ESV强度呈现出湖区高、周围低的分布特征。(4)碳排放强度与ESV强度之间存在明显的负相关性,局部集聚现象显著,高低聚集区逐渐增多。[结论]重点修复和保护林草地与水域,严格控制城镇的迅速扩张能够有效促进鄱阳湖流域实现绿色低碳发展以及生态安全。[Objective]This study aims to quantify and analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of carbon emissions and ecosystem service value(ESV)in the Poyang Lake Basin,and explore the spatiotemporal coupling relationship between the two,providing a reference for promoting the achievement of regional carbon neutrality goals and steady development of the ecological economy.[Methods]Based on land use data from five sets of remote sensing images(2000-2020)in the Poyang Lake Basin,this study integrated the IPCC carbon emission coefficient method,ESV equivalent factor method,Pearson correlation coefficient,and spatial autocorrelation methods to explore the spatiotemporal coupling relationship between ESV and carbon emissions under land use changes.[Results](1)Between 2000 and 2020,significant land use changes occurred in the Poyang Lake Basin,with the largest changes occurring in the conversion of the cultivated land,although the total amount remained relatively stable.Forest land decreased significantly,while built-up land increased substantially,with areas of 1282.29 km^(2)and 1697.04 km^(2),respectively.(2)The basin was a carbon source,with the net carbon emissions increasing significantly at an average annual growth rate of 17.70%,primarily driven by built-up land.Low carbon emission intensity areas were widespread and dominant,while high carbon emission intensity areas were mainly concentrated in the southwest,corresponding to urban distribution.(3)Total ESV slowly decreased from 1800.41 billion yuan to 1705.73 billion yuan.ESV intensity showed a distribution characteristic with higher values in the lake area and lower values in the surrounding areas.(4)Carbon emission intensity was negatively correlated with the ESV intensity,with significant local clustering and an increasing number of high and low clustering areas.[Conclusion]Focusing on the restoration and protection of forests,grasslands,and water bodies,as well as strictly controlling the rapid expansion of urban areas,can effectively promote the realiz

关 键 词：土地利用碳排放 生态系统服务价值 时空演变 空间自相关 鄱阳湖流域 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F301.24[经济管理—产业经济]