基于土地利用变化的四川省碳储量时空演变与预测及驱动因素分析  

Spatiotemporal evolution,forecast,and driving factor analysis of carbon storage in Sichuan Province based on land use change

作　　者：魏熙乐 李倩 邓爱平 刘君宝 乔乐 Wei Xile;Li Qian;Deng Aiping;Liu Junbao;Qiao Le(School of Economics,Hunan Agricultural University,Changsha 410128,China;Party School of CPC Pingxiang Municipal Committee,Pingxiang,Jiangxi 337000,China;School of Materials and Chemical Engineering,Pingxiang University,Pingxiang,Jiangxi 337000,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南农业大学经济学院,长沙410128 [2]中共萍乡市委党校,江西萍乡337000 [3]萍乡学院材料与化学工程学院,江西萍乡337000

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2025年第3期373-383,共11页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：江西省社会科学基金“萍乡市城乡融合发展对策研究”(21DQ14);江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目“在GIS技术背景下AEZ模型的萍乡土地综合承载力研究”(GJJ212701);江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目“空间自相关背景下江西罗霄山脉集中连片区与长株潭城市群引力研究”(GJJ2202106)。

摘　　要：[目的]揭示四川省土地利用变化与生态系统碳储量的响应关系,阐明碳储量的驱动机制并预测不同情景下四川省碳储量值,为探查四川省生态系统碳储量提供科学支撑。[方法]应用PLUS-InVEST模型分析四川省1990—2020年以及2030年自然发展情景、经济发展情景和生态保护情景下的生态系统碳储量变化,利用地理探测器对其历史碳储量时空分异驱动力进行探析。[结果](1)1990—2020年,四川省碳储量从6.37×10^(9) t增加到6.44×10^(9) t,累计增加7.038×10^(7) t,草地和耕地向林地转移是碳储量增加的主要原因;(2)2030年,3种情景下的碳储量均为增加趋势,分别为6.46×10^(9),6.45×10^(9),6.49×10^(9) t;(3)1990—2020年,四川省碳储量时空分异的主要驱动因子为高程、降水和距铁路距离,各驱动因子交互探测均呈现双因子增强和非线性增强作用,以非线性增强为主。[结论]以退耕还林为主的生态工程是四川省生态系统碳储量增加主要原因,受自然、区位和经济的多重因素影响,未来应加强对林地和湿地的保护与扩张。[Objective]This study aims to reveal the relationship between land use change and ecosystem carbon storage in Sichuan Province,deconstruct the driving mechanisms of carbon storage and forecast carbon storage values under different scenarios,providing scientific support for its investigation.[Methods]The PLUS-InVEST model was utilized to analyze the changes in ecosystem carbon storage in Sichuan Province from 1990 to 2020 and under three scenarios for 2030:natural development,economic development,and ecological protection.The driving forces behind the historical spatiotemporal differentiation of carbon storage were analyzed using the Geodetector method.[Results](1)From 1990 to 2020,carbon storage in Sichuan Province increased from 6.37×10^(9) t to 6.44×10^(9) t,with a cumulative increase of 7.038×10^(7) t.The main reason for this increase was the conversion of grassland and farmland to forest land.(2)By 2030,carbon stocks under all three scenarios are expected to increase,reaching 6.46×10^(9),6.45×10^(9),and 6.49×10^(9) t,respectively.(3)From 1990 to 2020,the main driving factors behind the spatiotemporal differentiation of carbon storage in Sichuan Province were altitude,precipitation and distance to railways.Interactions among driving factors showed a dual-factor enhancement or nonlinear enhancement effect,predominantly nonlinear.[Conclusion]Ecological engineering such as the‘Grain for Green’program is the main reason for the increase in ecosystem carbon storage in Sichuan Province.Affected by natural,locational,and economic factors,future efforts should focus on the conservation and expansion of forest and wetland areas.

关 键 词：碳储量 InVEST模型 PLUS模型 地理探测器 四川省 

分 类 号：X171[环境科学与工程—环境科学]