基于二维云模型的建筑工程项目造价风险评估  

Cost Risk Assessment of Construction Projects Based on 2D Cloud Modelling

作　　者：胡兴民 HU Xing-min(Shandong Engineering Cost Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Ji'nan 250000,China)

机构地区：[1]山东省工程造价咨询有限公司,济南250000

出　　处：《价值工程》2025年第8期82-84,共3页Value Engineering

摘　　要：精确识别并有效控制工程造价风险,施工单位可显著提升项目管理水平,从而在激烈的市场竞争中占据优势地位。首先从投资决策、设计、招投标、施工及竣工等各阶段出发建立工程项目造价风险评估指标体系。其次利用CRITIC法确定各评价指标组合权重;然后利用二维云模型从风险发生概率与风险产生后果出发评价工程项目造价风险等级,使用MATLAB软件绘制二维云图以直观确定评价结果。最后以某建筑工程为例,综合评价其造价风险等级。结果表明该建筑工程项目造价风险处于较高风险等级。In order to accurately identify and effectively control engineering cost risks,construction units can significantly improve the level of project management,so as to occupy an advantageous position in the fierce market competition.Firstly,the project cost risk assessment index system is established from the stages of investment decision,design,bidding,construction and completion.Secondly,the CRITIC method is used to determine the weight of each evaluation index combination.Then the two-dimensional cloud model is used to evaluate the cost risk level of engineering projects from the probability of risk occurrence and the consequences of risk,and the two-dimensional cloud diagram is drawn using the MATLAB software to determine the evaluation results intuitively.Finally,a construction project is taken as an example to comprehensively evaluate its cost risk level.The results show that the cost risk of this construction project is at a higher risk level.

关 键 词：建筑工程项目 工程造价 风险评估 CRITIC法 二维云模型 

分 类 号：TU723.3[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]