消费者风险厌恶下的零售商预售与退货策略  

Retailers'Pre-sale and Return Strategies under the Influence of Consumer Risk Aversion

作　　者：史保莉 徐琪[2] 孙中苗 单仁邦 SHI Bao-li;XU Qi;SUN Zhong-miao;SHAN Ren-bang(School of Management,Hangzhou Dianzi University,Hangzhou 310018,China;Glorious Sun School of Business and Management,Donghua University,Shanghai 200051,China;School of Economics and Management,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201204,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州电子科技大学管理学院,浙江杭州310018 [2]东华大学旭日工商管理学院,上海200051 [3]上海海事大学经济管理学院,上海201204

出　　处：《系统工程》2025年第1期88-100,共13页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(21BGL014);国家自然科学基金重点项目(71832001);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金、东华大学研究生创新基金资助项目(CUSF-DH-D-2021063)。

摘　　要：预售能够降低市场需求的不确定性,但消费者估值的不确定性以及消费者的风险厌恶影响消费者的预购行为和零售商收益。消费者同质或异质风险厌恶影响下,零售商是否应提供预售和退货服务以及对退回产品如何处理是零售商必须面临的重要问题。本文在市场需求与消费者估值不确定条件下,构建无预售、无退货的预售、退货不再销售和退货再销售的四种预售策略下的报童模型,求解零售商的最优预售价格、订购量和退货价格等,分析零售商实施不同预售策略的临界条件以及消费者同质或异质的风险厌恶对零售商预售策略的影响。研究表明:预售能够更新现售期的市场需求,从而降低库存风险和安全库存;预售并不总是最优的销售策略,针对消费者同质或异质的风险厌恶,零售商能够根据阈值的大小判断采取何种预售策略;消费者同质或异质风险厌恶对零售商预售价格和预售收益的影响是负面的。若产品的单位采购成本较高,零售商应将退回的产品重新包装,进行二次销售。相反,若产品的单位采购成本较低,零售商应将退回的产品直接作残值处理。Pre-sale can reduce the uncertainty of market demand,but the uncertainty of consumer valuation and consumers'risk aversion affect consumers'pre-purchase behavior and retailers'revenue.Under the influence of consumers'homogeneous or heterogeneous risk aversion,whether retailers should provide pre-sale and return services and how to deal with returned products are important issues that retailers must face.Under the uncertainty of market demand and consumer valuation,this paper constructs a newsboy model under four scenarios:no pre-sale,pre-sale with no-return,returns are no longer for sale,returns for resale pre-sale strategy.And obtains the retailer's optimal pre-sale price,order quantity and return price,etc.,and analyzes the critical conditions for retailers to implement different pre-sale strategies and the impact of consumers'homogeneous and heterogeneous risk aversion on retailers'pre-sale strategies.Research shows that:pre-sale can update the market demand during the regular sales period,thereby reducing inventory risk and safety stock.Pre-sale is not always the optimal sales strategy.In view of the homogeneous or heterogeneous risk aversion of consumers,retailers can determine which pre-sale strategy to adopt according to the size of the threshold.The effect of consumers'homogeneous and heterogeneous risk aversion on retailer's pre-sale price and pre-sale revenue is negative.If the unit purchase cost of the product is high,the retailer should repackage the returned product for secondary sales.On the contrary,if the unit purchase cost of the product is low,the retailer should directly treat the returned product as salvage value.

关 键 词：预售 退货 风险厌恶 报童模型 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]