基于多态网络的闭环供应链三阶段可靠性评估方法  

Three-phase Reliability Evaluation for Closed-loop Supply Chain Based on Multistate Networks

作　　者：冯良清[1] 胡一凡 许贝 FENG Liangqing;HU Yifan;XU Bei(School of Economics&.Management,Nanchang Hangkong University,Nanchang,Jiangxi 330063,China;School of Air Navigation(Civil Aviation),Nanchang Hangkong University,Nanchang,Jiangxi 330063,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌航空大学经济管理学院,江西南昌330063 [2]南昌航空大学通航(民航)学院,江西南昌330063

出　　处：《工业工程与管理》2025年第1期45-53,共9页Industrial Engineering and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71862025);江西省社会科学基金项目(20MJ01);江西省“双千计划”哲学社会科学领军人才项目(jxsq2019203008);江西省自然科学基金青年基金项目(20224BAB212017);江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目(GJJ2201124)。

摘　　要：构建闭环供应链是企业实现可持续发展的重要途径,而可靠性作为供应链的基本属性,是保障其正常运作的基础,因此对闭环供应链进行可靠性评估具有重要意义。针对闭环供应链的可靠性评估问题,分析了含逆向通路的闭环供应链的结构特征,考虑供应链各组件以及传输系统的不确定性,建立了基于多态网络的闭环供应链网络模型,给出了基于多态极小路的三阶段可靠性评估算法。最后以企业退换货三级供应链的可靠性评估为例,验证了三阶段评估算法的可行性和有效性。该方法可为闭环供应链节点与链路的优化管理提供决策参考。The closed-loop supply chain is an important way for enterprises to realize sustainable development. The reliability of the network is the basic attribute of the supply chain and the foundation of supply chain operation. Thus, the reliability evaluation for the closed-loop supply chain is of great significance. Focusing on the reliability evaluation problem within the closed-loop supply chain, structural characteristics of the closed-loop supply chain were analyzed, including the reverse pathway, alongside considerations of uncertainty affecting each component of the supply chain and the transmission system.Following this analysis, a closed-loop supply chain network model was constructed based on the multistate network. Furthermore, a three-phase reliability assessment algorithm was proposed, grounded on multistate minimal paths. Finally, taking the reliability assessment of the three-stage supply chain of enterprise returns as an example, the feasibility and effectiveness of the three-stage assessment algorithm were verified. The method can provide methodological support for the design optimization, management, and supplier selection of closed-loop supply chains.

关 键 词：闭环供应链 可靠性 多态网络 多态极小路 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理] F425[经济管理—国民经济]