黄河中游地区ESV与LER的时空演变及相关性分析  

Temporal evolution and correlation analysis of ESV and LER in the middle reaches of the Yellow River

作　　者：李魁明 石云 唐彦东 李婷婷 姚罗兰 LI Kuiming;SHI Yun;TANG Yandong;LI Tingting;YAO Luolan(School of Emergency Management,Institute of Disaster Prevention,Sanhe 065201,Hebei,China;Hebei Key Laboratory of Resource and Environmental Disaster Mechanism and Risk Monitoring,Sanhe 065201,Hebei,China;General Education College,Beijing Agricultural Vocational College,Beijing 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]防灾科技学院应急管理学院,河北三河065201 [2]河北省资源环境灾变机理及风险监控重点实验室,河北三河065201 [3]北京农业职业学院通识教育学院,北京100012

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2025年第3期1202-1212,共11页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：地震动力学国家重点实验室开放基金课题(LED2022B06)。

摘　　要：生态系统服务和生态风险防范是影响社会经济可持续发展的重要因素。近年来,关于大区域生态系统服务价值和生态风险管理的研究和实践较少,对其相互作用机制的研究也不够充分。黄河流域正处于生态保护和高质量发展阶段,研究以中游地区228个县区为例,以2000年、2010年和2020年为评价年份,探究生态系统服务价值(Ecosystem Service Value,ESV)与景观生态风险(Landscape Ecological Risk,LER)的交互机制,以为流域经济社会协调可持续发展提出新思路。通过建立单位面积生态系统服务价值(Area Ecosystem Service Value,AESV)与景观生态风险(LER)的评价模型,进一步揭示了AESV与LER的交互作用机制。结果显示:(1)黄河中游地区ESV呈先上升再下降的趋势,从2000年的3992.72亿元增加到2010年的4011.37亿元再降低到2020年的3982.62亿元。其中,林地对黄河中游地区ESV贡献率最大,占总价值的45%左右;AESV的空间分布差异明显。(2)黄河中游地区的LER整体上呈上升趋势,平均风险从2000年的0.258上升到2010年的0.259继续上升到2020年的0.267,高风险区数量所占比例逐渐增加。在空间分布上,高风险区集中在山西省。各风险等级面积占比相对稳定。(3)黄河中游地区AESV和LER两个变量之间整体上存在正相关关系。在局部尺度上存在4种类型的空间相关性:高价值与高风险、高价值与低风险、低价值与高风险、低价值与低风险。研究结果可为推动黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展提供理论参考。This study examines the interaction mechanism between Ecosystem Service Value(ESV)and Landscape Ecological Risk(LER)across 228 districts and counties in the middle reaches of the Yellow River.Using 2000,2010,and 2020 as evaluation years,we aim to provide new insights for promoting coordinated and sustainable economic and social development in the basin.By developing an evaluation model for Ecosystem Service Value per unit area(AESV)and LER,we were able to further elucidate the interaction mechanism between AESV and LER.The results indicate that(1)The ESV in the middle reaches of the Yellow River exhibited a trend of initially increasing and then decreasing.Specifically,the ESV rose from 399.272 billion CNY in 2000 to 401.137 billion CNY in 2010,before declining to 398.262 billion CNY by 2020.During this period,forest land was the largest contributor to the ESV in the middle reaches of the Yellow River,accounting for approximately 45%of the total value.Additionally,the spatial distribution of the AESV exhibited significant variation.(2)The LER in the middle reaches of the Yellow River demonstrated an overall upward trend.The average risk value increased from 0.258 in 2000 to 0.259 in 2010,and continued to rise to 0.267 by 2020.The proportion of high-risk areas has gradually increased over this period.Spatially,high-risk areas are predominantly concentrated in Shanxi Province,while the distribution of areas across different risk levels remains relatively stable.(3)A positive correlation between AESV and LER is observed in the middle reaches of the Yellow River.On a local scale,four distinct spatial correlation types are identified:high value with high risk,high value with low risk,low value with high risk,and low value with low risk.

关 键 词：环境学 生态系统服务价值 景观生态风险 时空演变 交互关系 

分 类 号：X2[环境科学与工程—环境科学]