铁路桥梁物化阶段碳排放计算及影响因素分析  

Analysis of carbon emission calculation and influencing factors in the physicochemical stage of railway bridges

作　　者：鲍学英[1] 薛春燕 李子龙 吕向茹 BAO Xueying;XUE Chunyan;LI Zilong;L Xiangru(School of Civil Engineering,Lanzhou Jiaotong University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Institute of Computing Technologies,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州交通大学土木工程学院,兰州730070 [2]中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司电子计算技术研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2025年第3期1224-1232,共9页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技研究开发计划实验室基础研究项目(L2023Z001);甘肃省自然基金资助项目(23JRRA918)。

摘　　要：为实现铁路桥梁减碳目标,降低桥梁物化阶段碳排放量,建立铁路桥梁物化阶段碳排放计算模型,提出一种基于随机森林算法的碳排放影响因素分析模型。首先,明确碳排放计算时空边界,采用碳排放系数法计算铁路桥梁物化阶段碳排放量,识别其碳排放影响因素,明确因素之间的相互关系;其次,通过随机森林算法对影响因素进行重要性排序,采用滑动窗口序贯向前选择法降维,确定关键影响因素;最后,针对关键因素采取相关碳减排措施以有效控制铁路桥梁的碳排放。研究结果表明:该铁路桥梁建材生产阶段碳排放在桥梁建设总碳排放中占比最大,为84%;关键影响因素为材料种类、桥梁工程量、桥梁类型、原材料需求量、材料生产工艺、运输方式;针对关键影响因素提出了利用可再生材料、选择符合低碳标准的桥梁类型等主要的碳减排措施,以实现铁路桥梁工程的低碳发展目标。研究成果可为铁路桥梁建设碳减排提供参考。To achieve carbon reduction in railroad bridges and minimize carbon emissions during their physical stage,a carbon emission calculation model specifically for this phase has been developed.Additionally,a model for analyzing the influencing factors of carbon emissions based on the random forest algorithm has been proposed.First,to establish the spatial and temporal boundaries for carbon emission calculations,we employ the carbon emission coefficient method to determine the carbon emissions associated with the physical stage of railroad bridges.This process involves identifying the influencing factors of carbon emissions and clarifying the interrelationships among these factors.Next,we utilize the Random Forest algorithm to rank the influencing factors by importance.The sliding window sequential forward selection method is then applied to reduce dimensionality and identify the key influencing factors.Finally,measures to reduce carbon emissions related to the key factors are implemented to effectively manage emissions from the railway bridge.The study results indicate that carbon emissions from the production phase of the building materials for the railroad bridge constitute the largest share of total carbon emissions during bridge construction,accounting for 84%.The key influencing factors identified include the type of materials,the volume of the bridge project,the bridge type,the demand for raw materials,the production processes of materials,and the mode of transportation.To achieve low-carbon development in railroad bridge projects,it is recommended to utilize renewable materials,select bridge types that align with low-carbon standards,and implement other essential carbon emission reduction measures.The research findings present a valuable opportunity for reducing carbon emissions in railway bridge construction,offering important insights for implementing effective carbon reduction strategies.

关 键 词：环境工程学 物化阶段 碳排放计算模型 影响因素 随机森林算法 碳减排措施 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]