碳交易机制下废弃物发电项目柔性投资决策研究  

Flexible Investment Decision of Waste-to-energy Projects under Carbon Trading Mechanism

作　　者：胡骏翡[1] 陈环月 Hu Junfei;Chen Huanyue(School of Management,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi’an 710129,China)

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学管理学院,陕西西安710129

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2025年第2期320-331,共12页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72274155,72171195);陕西省创新能力支撑计划软科学项目(2023-CX-RKX-104);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(D5000220423)。

摘　　要：促进废弃物发电投资建设是未来低碳发展的重要方向。中国核证减排机制(China Certified Emission Reduction, CCER)使得备案后的废弃物发电项目可获得额外的碳减排收益,为该类项目的发展带来新的机遇。本文引入了最小二乘蒙特卡洛模拟方法,构建了碳交易机制下支持废弃物发电项目柔性投资决策的实物期权模型,探究了CCER在碳市场中开放交易对废弃物发电项目投资决策的影响。与基于二叉树及偏微分方程的传统实物期权方法相比,本文所建立的模型更适用于多维不确定条件下的柔性决策优化。与现有方法多应用于太阳能及风能等发展较为成熟的可再生能源项目不同,本文重点优化废弃物发电项目的柔性投资决策,并将CCER价格波动引入模型,为废弃物资源化产业在碳交易背景下的大力发展提供支持。本文以中国陕西废弃物焚烧发电项目投资建设为实际应用背景展开案例分析。仿真结果表明,CCER碳交易机制会大幅提升废弃物发电项目的价值,并且考虑柔性投资决策的项目价值要比固定投资决策的项目价值更高,这一结果验证了在不确定条件下废弃物发电项目实施柔性决策的重要性。此外,敏感性分析结果表明,考虑柔性投资决策的项目价值随补贴比例、碳价上下限、碳减排标准系数和CCER价格波动率呈同向变动。Promoting investment and construction of waste-to-energy(WtE)projects are an important direction for the future low-carbon development.The China Certified Emission Reduction(CCER)mechanism allows WtE projects to obtain additional benefits of carbon emission reduction after filing,which brings new opportuni⁃ties for such projects.However,the high volatility of CCER prices will further increase the uncertainty of opera⁃tion environment,which makes the development of WtE projects face challenges.Therefore,it is of great significance to investigate the influence of CCER mechanism on WtE projects decision-makings.In this paper,a flexible investment decision of WtE projects under the CCER mechanism is studied.The flexible investment decision allows decision-makers to flexibly choose the optimal investment time within an effective investment period.A real option model with the least squares Monte Carlo simulation is developed to evaluate the value of flexibility.It can also help decision-makers to choose the optimal investment time.The proposed model compares favorably to traditional real option models(e.g.,the binomial lattices)by efficiently analyzing multiple uncertainties(i.e.,electricity price,CCER price,unit investment cost and electricity generation efficiency).Unlike the existing real option models that are mostly applied to solar energy and wind energy,it focuses on the optimization problem of WtE projects.The applicability of the proposed model is tested using a real WtE projects in Shaanxi,China.Results show that the existence of CCER mechanism can significantly increase the value of WtE projects.The project value with flexible investment decision is higher than that of the fixed investment decision,which further verifies the important of considering flexibility in WtE development processes.In addition,the sensitivity analysis shows that with the increase in parameters like the subsidy proportion,the CCER price,the upper/lower bound of carbon price,the project value of the flexible invest⁃ment decision

关 键 词：废弃物发电 柔性投资决策 实物期权 中国核证减排量 

分 类 号：F272.3[经济管理—企业管理]