中国土地出让规模和出让价格的时空分异与形成机制  

Spatio-temporal divergence and formation mechanism of land transfer scale and price in China

作　　者：林树高 徐勤航 诸培新[1,2] 陆汝成 张鹏[1] 毕佳港 LIN Shugao;XU Qinhang;ZHU Peixin;LU Rucheng;ZHANG Peng;BI Jiagang(College of Public Administration,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China;China Resources&Environment and Development Academy,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China;Institute of Strategic Planning,Shandong Academy of Macroeconomic Research,Jinan 250014,China;School of Natural Resources and Surveying,Nanning Normal University,Nanning 530001,China)

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学公共管理学院,南京210095 [2]南京农业大学中国资源环境与发展研究院,南京210095 [3]山东省宏观经济研究院战略规划研究所,济南250014 [4]南宁师范大学自然资源与测绘学院,南宁530001

出　　处：《地理研究》2025年第3期619-637,共19页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金万人计划领军人才项目(22VRC163);国家自然科学基金项目(42061043)。

摘　　要：揭示土地出让规模和出让价格的变化规律对促进土地要素参与宏观调控过程具有借鉴意义。本文利用冷热点、标准差椭圆和综合地价模型刻画2007—2022年中国295个城市的土地出让规模和出让价格变化的时空特征,采用双变量空间自相关模型分析空间交互关系并借助地理探测器揭示其形成机制。结果表明:(1)土地出让规模历经高速增长-急剧下降-平稳上升的变化特征,呈现“东热西冷”的空间格局,工矿用地和商服用地的出让重心由东向西迁移,住宅用地和其他用地的出让重心由北向南迁移。(2)住宅用地和商服用地价格上涨较快,工矿用地和其他用地价格上涨较慢,各类地价均呈现“东南高、西北低”格局,空间分布由点状离散向面状集聚演进,局部差异缩小、全局差距扩大。(3)土地出让规模和出让价格具有显著的空间正相关关系,局域空间格局呈现高-高集聚和低-高集聚位于“胡焕庸线”以东,低-低集聚和高-低集聚位于“胡焕庸线”以西的分布特征。(4)多因素交互作用对土地出让规模和出让价格的影响高于单因素,土地出让规模和出让价格变化是经济发展和社会生活导向下政策制度实施和区位条件优化的结果。应通过优化土地出让结构、调控土地出让价格、引导土地出让规模与出让价格的交互效应促进区域协调发展。Unveiling the evolutionary rules and mechanisms of land transfer scale and land transfer price holds referential significance for enhancing the role of land resources in macroeconomic control.This paper takes the land market transaction data from 295 cities in China from 2007 to 2022 as a case study.Using cold-hot spot analysis,standard deviation ellipses and a comprehensive land price model,this analysis depicts the spatio-temporal characteristics of land transfer scale and price changes.A bivariate spatial autocorrelation model is employed to analyze the spatial interaction between the scale and price of land transfer.Furthermore,the geographical detector is used to uncover the formation mechanism.The findings of the study reveal that:(1)The land transfer scale experiences a trajectory of rapid growth,sharp decline and gradual rise,exhibiting a spatial pattern of"hot in the east,but cold in the west".The gravities of industrial and mining land and commercial land transfer shift westward,whereas those of residential land and other land types move southward.(2)Residential land prices and commercial land prices rise quickly,while the transfer prices of industrial and mining land and other types of land increase slowly.All types of land prices show a pattern of"higher in the southeast,but lower in the northwest",transitioning from scattered points to clustered regions,which reduce local disparities but expand the overall gap.(3)A significant positive spatial correlation is observed between the scale and price of land transfer.The local spatial pattern displays high-high and low-high clustering to the east of the Hu Huanyong Line,while low-low clustering and high-low clustering are found to the west of the Hu Huanyong Line.(4)The impact of multifactor interactions on land transfer scale and land transfer price is greater than that of single factors.Changes in land transfer scale and price are the result of policy implementation and location condition optimization under the guidance of economic development and social

关 键 词：土地出让规模 土地出让价格 空间关联 时空格局 形成机制 地理探测器 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]