中国1979-2023年降水-风速复合极端事件气候特征研究  

Climate Characteristics Analysis of Compound Precipitation and Wind Speed Extremes in China from 1979 to 2023

作　　者：褚利玲 刘丽珺 梁友嘉[4] 何超 张天宇 金继明 CHU Liling;LIU Lijun;LIANG Youjia;HE Chao;ZHANG Tianyu;JIN Jiming(College of Resources and Environment,Yangtze University,Wuhan 430100,Hubei,China;Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Geochemistry and Environment,Yangtze University,Wuhan 430100,Hubei,China;China Meteorological Administration Economic Transformation of Climate Resources Key Laboratory,Chongqing climate center,Chongqing 401147,China;School of Resources and Environmental Engineering,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430070,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]长江大学资源与环境学院,湖北武汉430100 [2]长江大学油气地球化学与环境湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430100 [3]中国气象局气候资源经济转化重点开放实验室,重庆市气候中心,重庆401147 [4]武汉理工大学资源与环境工程学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《高原气象》2025年第2期335-348,共14页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：气候资源经济转化重点开放实验室开放课题(2023016);中国博士后科学基金资助(2023M730363)。

摘　　要：基于1979-2023年欧洲中期天气预报中心第五代大气再分析数据集的中国逐小时降水和10 m风速,利用复合极端事件判定、趋势分析法、空间统计分析以及合成分析法,研究了中国降水-风速复合极端事件(PWEs)的时空变化以及相应聚类特征,并对划分时间段后的环流特征进行分析。结果表明,中国PWEs总体呈东多西少,分区PWEs中,华东地区发生最多,其发生频次与日数平均值在4~8次和4~8 d范围内最多,相应面积占比分别达到78.9%和71.5%。1979-2023年PWEs整体呈下降趋势,2011-2023年发生频次与日数的变化速率是1979-2010年的2.3倍和3.4倍。1979-2010年PWEs变化趋势在华东地区中东部、西南地区中部和西北地区北部为增加趋势,华中地区下降最快;2011-2023年,正趋势值主要集中在中国中部,华东地区增加最快,每10年分别增加0.96次和1.12 d;华南地区则以-0.81次·(10a)^(-1)和-0.77 d·(10a)^(-1)的速度下降。1979-2010年热点区域集中在胡焕庸线西侧以及沿海地区,2011-2023年热点区域的分布与变化趋势正值分布一致。PWEs是大气高、中、低层共同作用的结果:大气高层的辐散增强以及急流带的减弱有助于北抬,促进大气的上升运动,同时也促使西北太平洋副热带高压(以下简称西太副高)向西伸展。大气中层东风异常有利于西太副高外围水汽进入中国内陆地区,低层的东南风异常也进一步促进水汽向中国内陆输送。2010年之后的大气环流特征也表现为PWEs向中国中部地区发展。Based on the hourly precipitation and 10 m wind speed data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Fifth Generation Atmospheric Reanalysis dataset from 1979 to 2023,spatiotemporal changes and its corresponding clustering characteristics of compound precipitation and wind speed extremes(PWEs),and the circulation characteristics in different periods in China were studied by using compound extreme events definition,trend analysis,spatial statistical analysis,and composite analysis.The results showed that PWEs in China were generally more frequent in the east than in the west.Among the PWEs in each subregion,the highest value was found in East China,where the mean value of the frequency and the days were the most in the range of 4~8 times and 4~8 d,and the corresponding area share reached 78.9% and 71.5%,respectively.The overall trend of PWEs from 1979 to 2023 had been decreasing,with the rate of change from 2011 to 2023 being 2.3 times and 3.4 times that of 1979 to 2010.The trend of PWEs from 1979 to 2010 showed an increasing trend in the central and eastern region of Eastern China,the central region of Southwest,and the northern region of Northwest,and the fastest decrease in Central China.From 2011 to 2023,positive trend values were mainly concentrated in the central region of China,and the Eastern China was the region of the fastest growth with rates of 0.96 times and 1.12 d per decade.In contrast,Southern China exhibited a decrease at rates of 0.81 times·(10a)^(-1) and-0.77 d·(10a)^(-1).The hot spot areas were concentrated on the west side of the Hu Line and coast region from 1979 to 2010,and the distribution of hot spot areas from 2011 to 2023 were consistent with the positive distribution of trend change.In addition,PWEs are the result of the combined effects of the high,middle,and low-level atmospheric layers.The enhancement of atmospheric high-level divergence and the weakening of the jet belt promote the upward movement of the atmosphere and the westward extension of the west Pac

关 键 词：复合极端事件 时间复合 时空特征 空间聚类 环流特征 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]