市民化对农业转移人口就业质量变化的影响  

Changes in Employment Quality of Agricultural Migrant Population before and after Citizenization

作　　者：许岩 付小鹏 杨振寰 XU Yan;FU Xiaopeng;YANG Zhenhuan(Institute for Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone Development,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China;School of Intellectual Property,Chongqing University of Technology,Chongqing 400054,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学成渝地区双城经济圈建设研究院,重庆400067 [2]重庆理工大学知识产权学院,重庆400054

出　　处：《人口与经济》2025年第2期119-138,共20页Population & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“新型城镇化背景下‘农转非’人口的劳动力市场融入研究”(20CRK006);重庆市教委人文社会科学研究项目“成渝地区双城经济圈‘农转非’人口的就业质量研究”(24SKJD112)。

摘　　要：农业转移人口与城镇人口在就业质量上的巨大差距是一个备受关注的社会经济问题。在市民化前后,农业转移人口的就业质量会呈现出怎样的演进趋势呢?基于2018年中国家庭收入调查数据,利用Neumark分解、无条件分位数回归分解以及倾向得分匹配对市民化前后农业转移人口的就业质量变化特征及其背后的经济学动因进行了系统的对比与识别。研究发现:经历过市民化的“农转非”人口的就业质量整体上高于农业户籍人口,但仍然显著低于城镇本地人口。虽然随着落户时间的增加,“农转非”人口与城镇本地人口的就业质量将逐渐趋同,但整个趋同过程要20年以上的时间。市民化前后农业转移人口与城镇本地人口就业质量差异产生的原因存在明显区别。农业户籍人口—城镇本地人口的就业质量差异是就业者的特征性差异与歧视因素引起的结构性差异共同造成的,“农转非”人口—城镇本地人口的就业质量差异则是由就业者的特征性差异单独造成的。从总体上来看,“农转非”对就业质量的提高有积极的政策效应,但不同的“农转非”路径对就业质量的影响则表现出截然不同的异质性特征。The huge gap in employment quality between agricultural migrant population and urban population is a highly-concerned socio-economic issue.What is the evolutionary trend of the employment quality of agricultural migrant population in the process of citizenization?Based on the data of Chinese Household Income Project(CHIP 2018),this paper uses Neumark decomposition,unconditional quantile regression decomposition(RIF),and propensity score matching(PSM)to systematically compare and identify the change characteristics of employment quality of agricultural migrant population before and after citizenization and the underlying economic drivers.The research findings are as follows:1)The employment quality of the“agricultural to non-agricultural”population who has experienced citizenization is significantly higher than that of the agricultural registered population on the whole,but still significantly lower than that of the urban local population.Although the employment quality of the“agricultural to non-agricultural”population and the urban local population will gradually converge with the increase of settlement time,the entire convergence process will take more than 20 years.2)There are significant differences in the reasons for the differences in employment quality between agricultural migrant population and urban local population before and after citizenization.The employment quality difference between the agricultural registered population and the urban local population is caused by the characteristic difference of the employment and the structural difference caused by discrimination factors.The employment difference between the“agricultural to non-agricultural”population and the urban local population is caused by the characteristic difference of the employment alone.3)Overall,the“agricultural to non-agricultural”policy has a positive policy effect on improving employment quality,but the impact of different“agricultural to non-agricultural”paths on employment quality shows distinct heterogeneity

关 键 词：市民化 农业转移人口 农转非 就业质量 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学] F244.1