1981~2021年怒江下游勐波罗河降水演变及IOD关联  

Precipitation Changes of Mengbulo River in the Lower Reaches of the Nujiang River During 1981-2021 and Their Correlation with the IOD

作　　者：张宁[1] 陈文华[2] 李国永 ZHANG Ning;CHEN Wen-hua;LI Guo-yong(Baoshan Branch of Yunnan Provincial Bureau of Hydrology and Water Resources,Baoshan 678000,China;Baoshan University,Baoshan 678000,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省水文水资源局保山分局,云南保山678000 [2]保山学院,云南保山678000

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2025年第3期22-25,64,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：云南省科技厅项目(202305AM340031)。

摘　　要：全球气候变化背景下,研究降水变化趋势及其与大规模海气活动指标的关联对区域水资源管理有重要意义。以国际河流怒江下游一级支流勐波罗河流域40余年日降水数据及印度洋偶极(IOD)模式指数(DMI)为支持,利用Mann-Kendall趋势及突变分析、Spearman相关分析等方法分析了该区降水量及降水集中程度的时间变化规律及雨季降水量、降水集度指数、年降水日数与季节DMI之间的关联。结果表明,1981~2021年流域年降水、降水日数呈减小趋势而降水集中度呈增加趋势。流域雨季降水、降水日数与季节DMI表现出不同程度的负相关,尤其是雨季降水与上一年秋季、同年春季、夏季DMI关联度较高。该关系的空间分异可能是流域地形与大尺度西南季风驱动的水汽分配叠加的结果。In the context of global climate change,it is of great significance to study the variation of precipitation and its correlation with large-scale air-sea activity indicator for regional water resources management.Based on the daily precipitation data of Mengboluo River Basin for more than 40 years,a tributary of the lower Nujiang River and the Indian ocean dipole(IOD)model index(DMI),the temporal variation of precipitation and precipitation concentration index(PCI)in this area and the correlation between precipitation and seasonal DMI were analyzed by Mann-Kendall trend/abrupt change diagnosis and Spearman correlation analysis.The variation diagnosis of annual precipitation shows that the annual precipitation and the precipitation days illustrated a decreasing trend while the PCI shows an increasing trend in recent 40 years.The wet season precipitation and precipitation days in the basin has mainly negative correlation with the seasonal DMI to different extent,especially during the rainy season,there is a high correlation between precipitation and DMI in the autumn of the previous year,spring of the same year,and summer.The spatial differentiation of these relationship may be the result of the superposition of the basin topography and the water vapor distribution that driven by the large-scale southwest monsoon.

关 键 词：降水 突变分析 IOD 关联 怒江下游 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P339[天文地球—水文科学]