机器人兴起与中国劳动力市场技能需求结构——来自中国招聘网站的证据  

The Rise of Robots and the Skill Demand Structure in Chinese Labor Market:Evidence from the Chinese Recruitment Website

作　　者：曲英姿 范莎[2] Qu Yingzi;Fan Sha(Business School,Beijing Normal University,Bejing 100875,China;Belt and Road School,Beijing Normal University,Zhuhai,Guangdong 519087,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学一带一路学院,珠海519087

出　　处：《华东师范大学学报(教育科学版)》2025年第4期70-103,共34页Journal of East China Normal University:Educational Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(教育学)重大项目“高校与地方行业企业合作新机制研究”(VJA230009)。

摘　　要：本文创新地运用中国招聘网站的劳动力需求数据以及国际机器人联合会(IFR)的中国区域机器人安装数据,在传统人力资本理论“学历-任务-职业”三维框架下探讨机器人兴起重塑技能需求结构的深层逻辑;并在新人力资本框架下,从认知技能和非认知技能的全新视角研究机器人兴起对技能需求结构的影响。结果表明:(1)机器人兴起会导致学历属性技能需求结构出现“单极化”的特征。(2)机器人兴起会对任务属性技能和职业属性技能的需求产生不同的结构性影响,由于不同学历技能的劳动者会有侧重地从事相应的任务和职业,因此机器人兴起对任务技能和职业技能需求结构的重塑也解释了学历技能需求结构“单极化”的内在机制。(3)机器人的兴起对认知技能和非认知技能有不同的替代或互补作用,且从职业异质性的角度看,人工智能会强化岗位的优势技能,弱化岗位的劣势技能。本文最后探讨了如何利用公共政策应对人工智能时代下的技能需求结构调整。This paper tries to explore the deep logic of robots reshaping the skill demand structure based on a framework of“Education-Task-Occupation”in the traditional human capital theory,and investigates the impact of robots on skill demand structure under the framework of new human capital theory from the new perspective of cognitive skills and non-cognitive skills,utilizing job vacancy data from Chinese recruitment website and the regional robots installation data in China matched from International Federation of Robotics(IFR).The results indicate that,first,the rise of robots leads to a“single polarization”characteristic in the structure of education-attribute skill demands.Second,the rise of robots has varying structural impacts on the demands for different task-attribute skills and occupation-attribute skills.Due to workers with different educational skills being inclined to engage in different tasks and occupations,the reshaping effect on the structure of task-attribute and occupation-attribute skill demands by robot indirectly reflects the inherent mechanism of“single polarization”in the structure of education-attribute skill demands.Finally,the rise of robots has different substitution and complementary effects on various cognitive and noncognitive skills.From the perspective of occupational heterogeneity,artificial intelligence strengthens the advantageous skills of positions while weakening the disadvantageous skills.The paper concludes by discussing how public policies can be utilized to address the structural adjustments in skill demands in the era of artificial intelligence.

关 键 词：机器人 技能需求 任务属性 认知技能与非认知技能 

分 类 号：TP2[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]