政策不确定性感知、数字政府与企业产品升级  

Perceived Policy Uncertainty,Digital Government and Enterprise Product Upgrades

作　　者：范琳琳 伍骏骞 王海军 黄送钦[5] Fan Linlin;Wu Junqian;Wang Haijun;Huang Songqin(School of Business,Hunan Normal University,Changsha 410081,China;Institute of Western China Economic Research,Southwestern University of Finance and Economics,Chengdu 611130,China;China Academy for Rural Development,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;Research Base for China Food Security Policy,Chengdu 611130,China;School of Business,Anhui University,Hefei 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南师范大学商学院,410081 [2]西南财经大学中国西部经济研究院,611130 [3]中国粮食安全政策研究基地,611130 [4]浙江大学中国农村发展研究院,310058 [5]安徽大学商学院,230601

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2025年第2期103-121,共19页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目“数据要素市场化配置驱动安徽制造业转型升级的机制与路径研究”(AHSKQ2023D133);湖南省教育厅优秀青年项目“共同机构持股对供应链协同创新的影响、机制与优化路径研究”(24B0098)的资助。

摘　　要：如何防范实体企业产品升级动力不足,促进实体经济高质量发展,已成为一个重要议题。本文使用2016年第12次中国私营企业调查数据,实证检验政策不确定性感知对企业产品升级的影响。研究表明,感知到政策不确定性的企业管理者会减少产品升级活动。渠道分析表明,政策不确定性感知主要通过降低风险承担意愿程度、加剧脱实向虚及增加非生产性支出,阻碍企业产品升级。对冲机制研究表明,数字政府建设可以通过深化政务公开、加强民意征集、促进政企互动协商缓解政策不确定性感知对企业产品升级的抑制效应。异质性分析显示,在存在数字化思维障碍的企业家群体,规模较小及市场化水平较低的地区,政策不确定性感知对企业产品升级的抑制作用更加明显。扩展分析表明,政策不确定性感知对企业的效率提升和价值链攀升产生了明显的负面影响。通过数字政府建设营造稳定、透明、可预期的营商环境,破除制约民营企业发展的制度壁垒,应成为未来政府转变职能工作的重要方向。How to prevent the lack of incentive for product upgrading of real enterprises and promote the high-quality development of the real economy has become an important issue.This paper uses data from a survey of Chinese private firms to empirically examine the impact of perceived policy uncertainty on firms'product upgrading.It is found that business managers who perceive policy uncertainty reduce product upgrading activities.Channel analyses show that perceived policy uncertainty hinders firms'product upgrading mainly by reducing willingness to take risks,intensifying the trend of shifting away from real economic activities towards more virtual ones,and increasing unproductive expenditures.Hedging mechanism research shows that digital government construction can mitigate the inhibitory effect of enterprise policy uncertainty perception on their product upgrading by deepening government affairs disclosure,strengthening public opinion collection,and promoting government-enterprise interaction and negotiation.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the inhibitory effect of perceived policy uncertainty on firms'product upgrading is more pronounced among entrepreneurs who distrust official media and have digital thinking barriers,as well as in smaller,politically connected firms,and in regions characterized by low marketization,and ambiguous political-business relations.Extended analyses show that perceived policy uncertainty has a significant negative impact on firms'efficiency improvement and value chain climbing.Creating a stable,transparent and predictable business environment through digital government construction and breaking down the institutional barriers that constrain the development of private enterprises should become an important direction for future government transformation efforts.

关 键 词：政策不确定性感知 产品升级 数字政府 

分 类 号：F27[经济管理—企业管理]