“双碳”目标下中国城市生态福利绩效的区域差异、动态演进和收敛性  

Regional Differences,Dynamic Evolution,and Convergence of Ecological Welfare Performance in Chinese Cities under the Dual Carbon Goals

作　　者：张灿 袁振龙[1] 李继霞 ZHANG Can;YUAN Zhenlong;LI Jixia(Institute of Comprehensive Governance,Beijing Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;School of Government,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市社会科学院综合治理研究所,北京100101 [2]北京师范大学政府管理学院,北京100875

出　　处：《生态经济》2025年第4期87-95,共9页Ecological Economy

基　　金：北京市社会科学院项目“京津冀新型城镇化与城市韧性关系的研究”(KY2024D0177)。

摘　　要：在“双碳”目标下分析中国城市生态福利绩效的区域差异、动态演进和收敛性对实现强可持续发展有现实意义。论文运用Super SBM-DEA模型测算了2007—2020年中国284个地级及以上城市的生态福利绩效。利用Dagum基尼系数、Kernel核密度函数及收敛模型分析了中国城市生态福利绩效的区域差异、动态演进和空间收敛性。研究结果表明:中国城市生态福利绩效差异来源主要为超变密度,其次是区域内差异,区域间差异贡献最小;根据Kernel核密度曲线发现中国城市生态福利绩效呈上升趋势,且城市间差异不断缩小;全国和四大区域均呈σ收敛特征,全国和东部地区城市生态福利绩效呈绝对β收敛态势,中部、西部和东北地区生态福利绩效呈发散趋势。控制地区间差异后,全国和四大区域城市生态福利绩效均呈条件β收敛趋势。未来,各区域要根据自身资源禀赋,利用生态福利绩效的溢出效应,缩小城市间生态福利绩效。通过金融体制改革、优化外商投资、新型城镇化建设,全面促进城市生态福利绩效提升。Analyzing the regional differences,dynamic evolution,and convergence of ecological welfare performance in Chinese cities under the dual carbon goals has practical significance for strong sustainable development.The Super SBM-DEA model was used to measure the ecological welfare performance of 284 cities in China from 2007 to 2020.The regional differences,dynamic evolution,and spatial convergence of ecological welfare performance in Chinese cities were analyzed by using Dagum Gini coefficient,Kernel density function,and convergence model.The results show that the main source of differences in ecological welfare performance of Chinese cities is super-variable density,followed by intra-regional differences,and the contribution of interregional differences is the smallest.According to the kernel density curve,it is found that the ecological welfare performance of Chinese cities is on an upward trend,and the differences between cities are shrinking.The national and four major regions showσconvergence characteristics,the ecological welfare performance of cities in the national and eastern regions shows an absoluteβconvergence trend,and the ecological welfare performance of cities in the central,western and northeastern regions shows a divergent trend.After controlling for inter-regional differences,the ecological welfare performance of cities in the national and four major regions shows a conditionalβconvergence trend.In the future,each region should use the spillover effect of ecological welfare performance based on its own resource endowment to narrow the ecological welfare performance between cities.Through financial system reform,optimization of foreign investment,and new urbanization construction,we will comprehensively promote the improvement of urban ecological welfare performance.

关 键 词：“双碳”目标 生态福利绩效 动态演进 区域差异 收敛性分析 

分 类 号：F291.1[经济管理—国民经济] F062.2[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X196