职业本科教育试点政策创新扩散的逻辑动因探究——基于全国31个省域数据的事件史分析  

Exploring the Logical Drivers of the Diffusion of Pilot Policy Innovation for Vocational Undergraduate Education:Event History Analysis Based on Data from 31 Provinces in China

作　　者：吴柯豫 魏署光 WU Keyu;WEI Shuguang

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学教育科学研究院,武汉430074 [2]华中科技大学教育科学研究院/院校发展研究中心,武汉430074

出　　处：《大学教育科学》2025年第2期99-111,共13页University Education Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金教育学一般项目“普及化时代我国高校决策支持研究:基于院校研究的立场”(BIA220089)。

摘　　要：发展职业本科教育是健全我国职业教育体系的关键环节,职业本科教育的快速发展得益于试点政策在全国范围内的广泛扩散。以政策创新扩散理论为基础,采用事件史分析法对2014—2021年我国31个省域的面板数据进行分析,以期探究职业本科教育试点政策在不同省域间的扩散特征、影响因素及内在逻辑。研究发现,试点政策的扩散趋势呈现出近似的“S形”扩散曲线,在空间分布上则表现为由中西部地区向东部地区“反向”扩散。基于现实问题导向的治理逻辑和基于政策试点导向的合法性逻辑,则是影响试点政策创新扩散的双元逻辑。其中,教育财政支出、在校生规模、高职院校规模、第三产业规模、同侪效应、纵向中央信号和社会公众关注是影响省级政府采纳试点政策的重要因素。The development of vocational undergraduate education is a key component in improving China’s vocational education system,and its rapid development is attributed to the widespread diffusion of pilot policies across the country.Based on the theory of policy innovation diffusion,this study uses event history analysis to analyze panel data from 31 provincial regions in China between 2014 and 2021,aiming to explore the diffusion characteristics,influencing factors,and underlying logic of vocational undergraduate education pilot policies across different provinces.The research finds that the diffusion trend of pilot policies follows an S-shaped diffusion curve,and in terms of spatial distribution,it shows a reverse diffusion from the central and western regions to the eastern regions.The governance logic based on real-world problem orientation and the legitimacy logic based on policy pilot orientation are the binary logics that influence the diffusion of pilot policy innovation.Among these,education fiscal expenditure,student enrollment scale,vocational college scale,size of the tertiary sector,peer effects,vertical central signals,and public attention are key factors influencing the adoption of pilot policies by provincial governments.

关 键 词：政策扩散 事件史分析 职业本科教育 双元逻辑 

分 类 号：G712[文化科学—职业技术教育学]