中断风险认知偏差对供应链决策的影响研究  

Research on the Impact of Disruption Risk Perception Bias on Supply Chain Decision-making

作　　者：叶春森[1] 吴红秀 YE Chunsen;WU Hongxiu(School of Business,Anhui University,Hefei 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽大学商学院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《江苏海洋大学学报(人文社会科学版)》2025年第2期84-96,共13页Journal of Jiangsu Ocean University(Humanities & Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：国家社科青年基金(19CTQ029);安徽教育厅人文社科项目(2022AH050019);安徽高校协同创新项目(GXXT-2023-063)。

摘　　要：针对中断风险认知偏差问题,从供应链竞争视角构建由国内供应商、国外供应商和制造商组成的采购决策分析模型,研究制造商低估或高估国外供应商的中断风险对供应链决策的影响。研究结果表明:(1)中断风险概率正向作用于制造商向国外供应商的采购数量,负向作用于向国内供应商的采购数量;(2)高估中断风险能够抑制中断风险对国外采购的正向影响,同时缓解中断风险对国内采购的负向影响;(3)过度低估中断风险会降低国内采购,导致批发价格话语权下降;(4)在特定消费者价值感知与低估中断风险的条件下,制造商和国内供应商有望实现双赢。To address the issue of disruption risk perception bias,this paper constructs a procurement decision analysis model consisting of domestic suppliers,foreign suppliers,and manufacturers from the perspective of supply chain competition,and examines the impact of manufacturers underestimating or overestimating the disruption risk of foreign suppliers on supply chain decision-making.The results indicate that the probability of disruption risk positively inf luences the quantity of purchases from foreign suppliers by manufacturers,while negatively affecting the quantity of purchases from domestic suppliers.Overestimating disruption risk can mitigate its positive impact on foreign procurement,while also alleviating its negative impact on domestic procurement.Excessive underestimation of disruption risk can lead to a decrease in domestic procurement,resulting in a decline in the bargaining power over wholesale prices,Under specific consumer value perceptions and conditions of underestimating disruption risk,manufacturers and domestic suppliers are expected to achieve a win-win situation.

关 键 词：价值感知 市场竞争 风险认知偏差 供应链决策 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]