企业数字化转型对分析师预测准确性的影响  

Impact of Corporate Digital Transformation on Analysts’Forecast Accuracy

作　　者：袁蓉丽[1] 刘梦瑶 黄泽烨 沈丽萍[2] YUAN Rongli;LIU Mengyao;HUANG Zeye;SHEN Liping(Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872;Yuxi Normal University,Yuxi 653100)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学商学院,北京100872 [2]玉溪师范学院工商管理系,玉溪653100

出　　处：《经济与管理研究》2025年第3期42-60,共19页Research on Economics and Management

摘　　要：在推进数字技术结合实体经济协同发展的背景下,数字化转型在持续推动企业发展与保持竞争力方面发挥着关键作用。本文以2007—2023年中国A股上市公司为样本,探讨企业数字化转型对分析师预测准确性的影响及潜在机制。研究结果表明,企业的数字化转型有助于提升分析师预测的准确性。在进行了内生性分析及稳健性检验后,上述结论依然成立。会计信息可比性的增加和企业内部控制的改善是数字化转型提升分析师预测准确性的两个机制。异质性分析结果表明,对于客户集中度低、业务复杂程度高、处于不确定性高环境和位于市场化程度低地区的企业,数字化转型对分析师预测准确性的提升效果更明显。本文的研究结论有助于深入理解企业数字化转型的经济后果,为政府推动和完善数字化转型政策提供参考。Digital transformation has subverted the organizational structures,management models,and governance patterns,and changed the characteristics and ways in which analysts obtain information from companies,posing new challenges to analysts’forecast accuracy(AFA).Analyzing the impact of corporate digital transformation on AFA and its mechanism is of great significance in deepening the understanding of the economic consequences of corporate digital transformation in the digital economy.Taking listed companies in China’s A-share market from 2007 to 2023 as samples,this paper investigates the impact of corporate digital transformation on AFA and its mechanism.The findings reveal that digital transformation helps to improve AFA.The result remains robust after endogeneity analysis and robustness tests including using the instrumental variable test,removing influencing factors,changing the fixed effects model,and replacing digital transformation metrics.The channel tests identify two major mechanisms through which digital transformation affects AFA.On one hand,digital transformation improves analysts’ability to make comprehensive judgments by increasing accounting information comparability,which helps analysts more accurately assess companies’financial conditions and performance,thus improving AFA.On the other hand,digital transformation can help companies enhance their internal control.Implementing stricter data management and internal auditing enhances the detection of errors and frauds,facilitates timely disclosure and feedback,and improves the reliability of financial reports,thereby enhancing AFA.The heterogeneity test indicates that corporate digital transformation improves AFA for companies with low customer concentration,high business complexity,operating in environments with high environmental uncertainty,and located in regions with low marketization levels.This paper enriches the literature on digital transformation and analysts’forecasts,contributing to a better understanding of the economic impact of c

关 键 词：数字化转型 分析师预测 管理层机会主义 会计信息可比性 内部控制 

分 类 号：F270.7[经济管理—企业管理] F832.5[经济管理—国民经济]