基于MC-GERT的舰载机出动回收作业流程时间不确定性分析  

Time uncertainty analysis on cyclic operation procedures of carrier aircraft based on MC-GERT

作　　者：郭放 韩维 刘玉杰 苏析超 白天 刘纯 GUO Fang;HAN Wei;LIU Yujie;SU Xichao;BAI Tian;LIU Chun(School of Basic Science for Aviation,Naval Aviation University,Yantai 264001,China;Military Political Work Research Institute,Beijing 100071,China;Aeronautical Operations College,Naval Aviation University,Yantai 264001,China;Systems Engineering Research Institute,CSSC,Beijing 100094,China;650 Aircraft Design Institute of AVIC Hongdu,Nanchang 330024,China)

机构地区：[1]海军航空大学航空基础学院,烟台264001 [2]军队政治工作研究院,北京100071 [3]海军航空大学航空作战勤务学院,烟台264001 [4]中国船舶工业系统工程研究院,北京100094 [5]洪都航空工业集团650所,南昌330024

出　　处：《北京航空航天大学学报》2025年第3期795-805,共11页Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(62003366)。

摘　　要：舰载机出动回收作业完成时间通常呈现较大的不确定性,直接影响航母任务规划人员对舰载机后续任务方案的制定。为确定舰载机出动回收作业流程完成时间的分布规律,辅助规划人员掌控舰载机任务执行进度,提出舰载机出动回收作业流程时间不确定性分析方法。基于舰载机出动回收作业流程,建立舰载机出动回收作业流程随机网络模型;提出以Laplace变换为传递函数的图示评审技术网络,对其传递函数特性进行研究,证明了舰载机出动回收作业流程随机网络模型可以运用信号流图理论进行求解,并引入蒙特卡罗方法用于求解随机网络中带有“与”型节点关系的并联支路简化及提升网络求解的运算效率。基于结合蒙特卡罗的图示评审技术(MC-GERT)方法,分别对舰载机飞行前准备作业、出动离场作业、波次出动离场作业及循环作业模式下的周期作业的完成时间的分布特性进行分析,验证了所提方法的可行性,表明该方法能够应用于对舰载机出动回收作业规划方案进行在线分析,为舰载机作业规划相关部门提供一定的方案执行预期。The completion time of the cyclic operation of carrier aircraft usually presents significant uncertainty,which directly affects the development of subsequent mission plans for carrier aircraft by carrier mission planners.To determine the distribution pattern of the completion time of the cyclic operation of carrier aircraft and assist planners in tracking the progress of carrier aircraft mission execution,the time uncertainty analysis method for cyclic operations of carrier aircraft was proposed.Firstly,based on the operation process from dispatching to recycling,the stochastic network model of the cyclic operation of carrier aircraft was established.Secondly,a graphic evaluation and review technique network with Laplace transform as the transfer function was proposed,and the characteristics of its transfer function were studied.It was proven that the stochastic netw ork model of the cyclic operation of carrier aircraft could be solved by utilizing the signal flow graph theory.In addition,the Monte Carlo graphical evaluation and review technique(MC-GERT)method was introduced to simplify the parallel branches with the“AND”relationship in the stochastic network and improve the calculation efficiency of the network solution.By the proposed graphic evaluation and review technique method combined with Monte Carlo,finally,the distribution characteristics of the completion time of the pre-flight preparations,sortie and departure,single wave departure operation,and the periodic operation under the cyclic mode of carrier aircraft were analyzed respectively,which verified the feasibility of the proposed analysis method.The results show that the proposed method can be applied to the online analysis of the planning scheme of the cyclic operation of carrier aircraft and can provide certain scheme implementation expectations for relevant departments of carrier aircraft operation planning.

关 键 词：舰载机 出动回收作业 MC-GERT LAPLACE变换 蒙特卡罗 不确定性分析 

分 类 号：V271.4[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计] V355.2