零碳产业园三方主体行为策略随机演化博弈研究  

Stochastic evolutionary game study on behavior strategy of three parties in zero-carbon industrial park

作　　者：张旭东[1] 胡西武 ZHANG Xudong;HU Xiwu(School of Economics and Management,Qinghai Minzu University,Xining 810007,China;Institute for Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality,Tianjin University-Qinghai Minzu University,Xining 810007,China)

机构地区：[1]青海民族大学经济与管理学院,青海西宁810007 [2]天津大学-青海民族大学双碳研究院,青海西宁810007

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2025年第3期321-328,共8页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:42461034);青海省“揭榜挂帅”重大社科项目(编号:JB2301);青海民族大学经济与管理学院2023年研究生创新项目(编号:65M2023071)。

摘　　要：利益主体的行为策略是影响零碳产业园建设效率的重要因素。构建由地方政府、园区管委会和驻园企业组成的演化博弈模型,建立三方主体的复制动态方程,分析各主体的演化稳定策略及各主体间的相互影响关系,并将延迟决策、随机扰动及相关参数变动纳入仿真分析,研究三方主体的策略选择演变。结果表明:①三方主体的策略选择相互影响,在推进产业园零碳化过程中地方政府发挥着引导作用;②延迟决策会导致三方主体采取“积极策略”的初期速度较慢;③随机扰动会使三方主体采取“积极策略”后仍无法保持稳定;④较高的初始概率无法加快地方政府选择“积极策略”的速度;⑤碳绩效考核及碳交易水准提高后,三方主体采取“积极策略”的速度均加快;⑥财税支持力度加大,会对园区管委会和驻园企业选择“积极策略”产生激励、对地方政府选择“积极策略”产生阻碍。The behavioral strategies of the stakeholders are important factors influencing the construction efficiency of the zero-carbon industrial park.This paper constructed an evolutionary game model composed of local government,park management committee and resident enterprises,and established the replication dynamic equation of the three entities to analyze the evolutionary stability strategies of each entity and the interaction between each entity.In addition,delayed decision making,random disturbance and related parameter changes were included in the simulation analysis to study the evolution of the strategy selection of the three entities.The results showed that:①The strategic choices of the three parties influenced each other,and the local government played a guiding role in the process of promoting the zero-carbonization of the industrial park.②Delaying the decision would lead to a slower initial speed of the three parties to adopt the“active strategy”.③The random disturbance would make the three parties unable to maintain stability after adopting the“active strategy”.④Higher initial probability couldn′t accelerate the speed of local government to choose“active strategy”.⑤After the improvement of carbon performance assessment and carbon trading level,the speed of the three parties to adopt“positive strategy”was accelerated.⑥The increase of fiscal and tax support would stimulate the park management committee and the enterprises in the park to choose“positive strategies”and hinder the local government to choose“positive strategies”.

关 键 词：零碳产业园 随机演化博弈 延迟决策 数值仿真 

分 类 号：F272.9[经济管理—企业管理]