基于指数平滑法的隧道围岩变形预测研究  

Research on Prediction of Tunnel Surrounding Rock Deformation Based on Exponential Smoothing Method

作　　者：张林清 ZHANG Linqing(China Railway Fourteenth Group Corporation Third Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Jinan,Shandong 250000,China)

机构地区：[1]中铁十四局集团第三工程有限公司,山东济南250000

出　　处：《施工技术(中英文)》2025年第4期54-59,94,共7页Construction Technology

基　　金：陕西省科技厅自然科学基金(2013-JC-YB-327);陕西省教育厅服务地方专项计划项目(22JC040)。

摘　　要：为了实现对隧道围岩变形的准确预测,采用时间序列函数,建立了基于三次指数平滑法的隧道围岩变形预测模型。以凤树梁隧道围岩拱顶下沉为例,选择不同的平滑因子对典型断面围岩变形进行预测。研究结果表明,在选取平滑因子α为0.9时,预测值时态曲线与实测值基本吻合,且平均绝对百分比误差较小,满足规范及施工要求。In order to realize the accurate prediction of tunnel surrounding rock deformation,a prediction model of tunnel surrounding rock deformation based on cubic exponential smoothing method is established by using time series function.Taking the vault subsidence of surrounding rock of Fengshuliang tunnel as an example,different smoothing factors are selected to predict the deformation of surrounding rock of typical section.The results show that when the smoothing factor is 0.9,the predicted time-state curve is basically consistent with the measured value,and the average absolute percentage error is small,which meets the requirements of specification and construction.

关 键 词：隧道 围岩 变形 指数平滑法 

分 类 号：U45[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]