新冠疫情期间中国铁矿石进口格局的变化  

Changes in China's Iron Ore Import Pattern in the Context of COVID-19

作　　者：肖人荣 赵鹏军 肖婷 高弋淳 杨娟 Xiao Renrong;Zhao Pengjun;Xiao Ting;Gao Yichun;Yang Juan(College of Resources and Environment,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 850000,China;School of Urban Planning and Design,Peking University,Shenzhen 518055,China;Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Human-Earth Relations,Ministry of Natural Resources of China,Shenzhen 518002,China;School of Mathematics Study and Applied Mathematics,Hubei Minzu University,Enshi 445000,China;Faculty of Education and Liberal Arts,INTI International University,Nilai 71800,Malaysia)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院,兰州850000 [2]北京大学城市规划与设计学院,广东深圳518055 [3]自然资源部陆表系统与人地关系重点实验室,广东深圳5180002 [4]湖北民族大学数学与统计学院,湖北恩施445000 [5]马来西亚英迪国际大学教育与文科学院,汝来71800

出　　处：《热带地理》2025年第3期423-434,共12页Tropical Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42130402);深圳市科技计划资助项目(JCYJ20220818100810024、KQTD20221101093604016)。

摘　　要：中国对海外进口铁矿石的依赖度超过80%,铁矿石的海运时空格局及演变关系到国民经济安全。新冠疫情深刻影响了全球海运时空格局,通过研究疫情时期中国铁矿石进口格局变化态势,试图为未来防范类似危机、提高供应链韧性提供依据与经验。基于AIS(Automatic Identify System)大数据,重点分析了疫情集中暴发期(2020年1—6月)中国铁矿石的时空输入格局,结果表明:1)2020年2月新冠疫情对中国铁矿石进口影响最为严重,随着中国3月复工复产,中国铁矿石进口量开始增长;2)2020年5月长三角、珠三角与西南沿海港口群的铁矿石进口量占比增加,铁矿石港输入重心呈略微南移的趋势,但整体仍分布在环渤海港口群南部边界。新冠疫情并未改变中国铁矿石进口以环渤海港口群为主要输入港的格局;3)疫情集中暴发期中国对澳大利亚、巴西、印度、乌克兰等国的铁矿石进口量同比增加,其中对巴西与澳大利亚铁矿石的依赖度同比降低,而对乌克兰与印度的依赖度同比提升,海外铁矿石供应中心呈现西偏趋势;4)疫情集中暴发期伊塔基港、圣尼古拉斯港、南非萨尔达尼亚湾港等港对华铁矿石供应量整体减少,而黑德兰、澳尔科特、丹皮尔等港口对华供应整体增长。China imports more than 80%of its iron via sea.The spatiotemporal patterns of iron ore shipping,as well as its changes,are linked to the China's national economic security.The COVID-19 pandemic has profoundly affected the spatiotemporal patterns of global shipping.By studying the changing trend of China's iron ore import pattern during the pandemic,this study attempts to provide a basis and experience to prevent similar crises and improve supply chain resilience in the future.This study employs Automatic Identification System data to estimate China's iron ore imports during the COVID-19 pandemic from January to June 2020.Furthermore,this study integrates the standard deviation ellipse and origin-destination,flow analysis methods to examine changes in the iron ore trade pattern.The findings reveal the following.1)The import pattern of iron ore in China exhibits pronounced geographical concentration.In terms of port distribution,the Bohai Rim serves as a core hub,hosting the majority of the country's major ore-receiving ports.Among them,the Caofeidian Port,Zhoushan Port,and Jinggang Port constitute three strategic fulcrums.2)From the perspective of trade source countries,China's iron ore imports face substantial market concentration risks.Australia(accounting for over 60%)and Brazil(accounting for over 20%)contributed more than 80%of the total import volume,forming a highly dependent supply system.The main ports for iron ore exports from Australia are located on the west coast,including Ports Hedland,Dampier,and Walcott,while Port Itaqui in Brazil is also a major source of China's iron ore imports.3)COVID-19 had the greatest impact on China's iron ore imports in February 2020.Imports rebounded in March as production resumed in China.In May,a higher import share in the Yangtze and Pearl River Delta regions shifted the import center slightly southward,although it remained along the southern boundary of the Bohai Rim port cluster.Despite the pandemic,the Bohai Rim ports retained their status as the primary import hubs

关 键 词：铁矿石 资源流 新冠疫情 自动识别系统 全球海运 中国 

分 类 号：F426.6[经济管理—产业经济]