NCEP-GFS和ECMWF-HERS驱动WRF模式的北京气象要素预报效果分析  

Analysis of the prediction effect of meteorological elements in Beijing based on NCEP-GFS and ECMWF-HERS driven WRF model

作　　者：潘锦秀 李云婷 孙峰 沈秀娥 姜磊 张章 郭元喜 PAN Jinxiu;LI Yunting;SUN Feng;SHEN Xiu′e;JIANG Lei;ZHANG Zhang;GUO Yuanxi(Beijing Key Laboratory of Airborne Particulate Matter Monitoring Technology,Beijing Municipal Ecological and Environmental Monitoring Center,Beijing 100048)

机构地区：[1]北京市生态环境监测中心大气颗粒物监测技术北京市重点实验室,北京100048

出　　处：《环境科学学报》2025年第3期75-87,共13页Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(No.2022YFC3700705);北京市科技计划项目(No.Z231100003823018)。

摘　　要：利用欧洲中期天气预报中心高分辨率数值天气预报数据(ECMWF-HRES),采用与北京市多模式空气预报平台中气象预报系统(WRFGFS)相同的WRF版本、区域设置及物理化学方案等,建立WRF-EC气象预报系统,并评估WRF-EC和WRF-GFS气象预报系统对2022年北京地区与PM_(2.5)污染相关的关键气象要素的预报效果.结果显示:WRF-EC对2022年北京地区气温、相对湿度和风速风向具有良好的预报准确性,其性能与WRF-GFS具有高度可比性的同时也存在一定的差异,能够弥补WRF-GFS对相对湿度的低估,同时风速的高估现象也有一定改善.两种预报系统对偏南风预报的差异主要表现在WRF-EC对东南风频率预报较观测偏多2.4%,而WRF-GFS则是对东南风和南风频率预报偏多4.2%,WRF-EC对不同风向上相对湿度的预报较WRF-GFS更接近观测,对东风和偏南风风向时风速的高估改善较其他风向明显.针对PM_(2.5)污染过程,两种预报系统对不同要素的预报效果均略差于全年,WRF-EC气象预报系统提供的气象要素预报一定程度上可以修正WRFGFS在PM_(2.5)污染过程的气象偏差.WRF-EC在污染起始阶段(S1)和持续时段(S2)气象要素预报效果方面优于WRF-GFS,WRF-GFS则在清除时段(S3)表现更优.Using high resolution numerical weather forecast data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF-HRES),WRF-EC weather forecast system was established with the same WRF version,regional setting and physicochemical scheme of WRF-GFS in Beijing Multi-Model Air Forecast Platform,and the prediction effect of WRF-EC and WRF-GFS on the key meteorological factors related to PM_(2.5)pollution in Beijing in 2022 were evaluated.The results show that WRF-EC has good prediction accuracy for the temperature,humidity,wind speed and wind direction in Beijing in 2022,its performances is highly comparable with WRF-GFS,but there are also some differences,at the same time it can make up for the underestimation of humidity and the overestimation of wind speed of WRF-GFS.The difference between the two prediction systems for southerly wind is mainly manifested in that WRF-EC’s prediction of southeast wind frequency is 2.4%higher than that observed ones,while WRF-GFS predicted that southeast and southerly winds were 4.2%more frequent than observed,the predict of humidity in different wind directions of WRF-EC is closer to observation than WRF-GFS,and the overestimation of wind speed in the east wind and southerly wind is significantly improved than that in other wind directions.For the PM_(2.5)air pollution process,the prediction effect of the two prediction systems for different elements is slightly worse than that of the whole year.The meteorological element prediction provided by WRF-EC meteorological prediction system can correct the meteorological deviation of WRF-GFS in the PM_(2.5)pollution process to a certain extent.WRF-EC is better than WRF-GFS in the prediction effect of meteorological elements in the initial stage(S1)and continuous period(S2),while WRF-GFS is better in the removal period(S3).

关 键 词：WRF-GFS WRF-EC 北京 气象要素 预报效果评估 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]