我国潜在老年人力资源的测度、识别与析因  

Measurement,Identification,and Analysis of Potential Elderly Human Resources in China

作　　者：阳义南 YANGYinan(School of Public Administration,Hunan University,Changsha 410082,Hunan)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学公共管理学院,湖南长沙410082

出　　处：《厦门大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2025年第2期191-204,共14页Journal of Xiamen University(A Bimonthly for Studies in Arts & Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“延迟退休的影响因素、作用效果与引导政策:基于企业员工层面的研究”(72174066)。

摘　　要：基于CLASS2018年数据,采用以主观老龄与法定退休年龄之差的操作办法来测量我国的潜在老年人力资源,男性平均为10年,女性为14年。根据老年人力资源使用的三个方向,使用有限混合模型将潜在老年人力识别为低、中、高三个亚群,各占52.94%、39.36%、7.7%,均值分别为7年、14年、34年。依此,将这三个均值作为延迟退休、非正规就业或劳作、社会参与等三种使用途径的年龄阀值,对应得出:男性延迟退休不超过67岁,女性不超过62岁;男性从事非正规就业或劳作的年龄上限为74岁,女性为69岁;男性参与社会的年龄上限为94岁,女性为89岁。回归模型估计结果表明,出生早、小学及以上文化、从事正规工作等人群的潜在老年人力显著更长,收入具有倒U型影响。实证结果可以为促进我国老年人力资源开发使用提供政策启示。Utilizing data from CLASS 2018,this study measures the potential elderly human resources in China by calculating the difference between subjective aging and the statutory retirement age,revealing an average of 10 years for males and 14 years for females.Employing a limited mixed model,potential elderly human resources were categorized into low,medium,and high sub-groups,representing 52.94%,39.36%,and 7.7%of the population,with mean values of7,14,and 34 years,respectively.This article suggests using these mean values as age thresholds for three pathways of utilization:delayed retirement,informal employment or labor,and social participation.Specifically,the recommended maximum age for delayed retirement is 67 for males and 62 for females;the upper age limit for informal employment is 74 for males and 69 for females;and for social participation,it is 94 for males and 89 for females.Regression model results indicate that individuals born earlier,with at least a primary school education,and engaged in formal work exhibit significantly longer potential in the elderly workforce,with income having an inverted U-shaped effect.Finally,the article presents policy recommendations for enhancing elderly human resources in China.

关 键 词：老年人力资源 主观年龄 延迟退休 老龄 有限混合回归模型 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]