基于线性矩的粤港澳大湾区极端降水区域频率分析  

Linear moments-based regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

作　　者：杨芳 马志鹏 陈子燊[3] YANG Fang;MA Zhipeng;CHEN Zishen(Pearl River Hydraulic Research Institute/Key Laboratory of Water Security,Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,Ministry of Water Resources,Guangzhou 510611,China;State Key Laboratory of Water and Sediment Science and Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China)

机构地区：[1]珠江水利科学研究院/水利部粤港澳大湾区水安全保障重点实验室,广东广州510611 [2]清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室,北京100084 [3]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《中山大学学报(自然科学版)(中英文)》2025年第2期12-21,共10页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3001000);水利青年人才发展资助项目;国家自然科学基金(41371498)。

摘　　要：以1961—2023年粤港澳大湾区30个气象观测站年最大日降水数据为基础数据,应用区域线性矩法分析了大湾区各子区域极端降水频率的最优分布函数与重现设计水平。研究结果表明:1)使用KNN分类法和均质性判别准则将大湾区气象站点分成5个子区域,分别为位于西江中下游的Ⅰ区、位于中北部三角洲网河区的Ⅱ区、位于南部伶仃洋河口区两岸的Ⅲ区、位于西南部的Ⅳ区、位于东部的Ⅴ区;2)Ⅰ~Ⅴ子区域的最优分布线型依次为P-Ⅲ、GEV、GEV、P-Ⅲ、GEV。依据区域暴雨增长曲线的方法,分别推算了大湾区各站点的暴雨频率设计值。3)由优选的5个分区的区域最优分布函数计算的暴雨重现水平值可作为子区域内无站点处工程设计的参考依据。Based on the annual maximum daily precipitation data collected from 30 meteorological observation stations in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area between 1961 and 2023,the optimal distribution function and recurrence design level of extreme precipitation frequency in each sub-region of the Greater Bay Area were analyzed by using the regional linear moment method.The findings are summarized as follows:1)The meteorological stations in the Greater Bay Area are divided into five sub-regions by KNN classification and homogeneity criterion.These sub-regions are:RegionⅠ,located in the middle and lower reaches of the Xijiang River;RegionⅡ,located in the Delta network River Area in the central and northern part of the Greater Bay Area;RegionⅢ,located on both sides of the Lingdingyang Estuary Area in the southern part of the Greater Bay Area;RegionⅣ,located in the southwestern part of the Greater Bay Area;and Region V, located in the eastern part ofthe Greater Bay Area. 2) The optimal distribution functions of the 1st to 5th sub-regions are P-III,GEV, GEV, P-III, and GEV, respectively. Consequently, the rainstorm frequency design values ofeach station in the Greater Bay Area are calculated using the regional rainstorm growth curve method.3) The rainstorm recurrence level determined by the optimal distribution functions for the five subregionscan serve as a reference for engineering design in sub-regions that lack specific site data.

关 键 词：L-矩 区域极端降水 频率分析 KNN分类 区域最优分布函数 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]