同时优化背景值和初值的NGM(1,1,k)模型  

NGM(1,1,k)Model with Simultaneous Optimization of Background and Initial Values

作　　者：马焕钦 陈友军[1] 李长春 Ma Huanqin;Chen Youjun;Li Changchun(School of Mathematics and Information,China West Normal University,Nanchong 637002,China)

机构地区：[1]西华师范大学数学与信息学院,四川南充637002

出　　处：《洛阳师范学院学报》2025年第2期5-9,17,共6页Journal of Luoyang Normal University

基　　金：四川省教育厅自然科学基金项目(18ZA0469)。

摘　　要：NGM(1,1,k)是灰色系统理论中一个非常重要的灰色预测模型.为了提高模型的建模精度,在NGM(1,1,k)模型基础上对背景值和初值同时进行改进,提出一种新的NGM(1,1,k)拓展模型.将新模型应用于中国近十年的页岩气产量分析,并将新模型的建模结果与传统GM(1,1)、优化初值的GM(1,1)、DGM(1,1)、UGM(1,1)以及SGGM(1,1,r)进行对比,验证了新模型的有效性和实用性.The NGM(1,1,k)model is a very important grey prediction model in grey system theory.To improve the modeling accuracy of the model,the researchers have made simultaneous improvements to the background value and the initial value based on the NGM(1,1,k)model,and propose a new extended NGM(1,1,k)model.The new model was applied to the analysis on shale gas production in China over the past decade.The modeling results of the new model were compared with those of the traditional GM(1,1),GM(1,1)with optimized initial value,DGM(1,1),UGM(1,1),and SGGM(1,1,r)models,which verified the effectiveness and practicality of the new model.

关 键 词：灰色预测 NGM(1 1 k) 背景值 初值 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]