会计信息形式质量与分析师盈余预测  

Accounting Information Representation Quality and Analysts’Earnings Forecast

作　　者：肖瑶 赵晓磊 牛华勇[1] XIAO Yao;ZHAO Xiaolei;NIU Huayong

机构地区：[1]北京外国语大学国际商学院,北京100089

出　　处：《中国西部》2025年第1期90-99,共10页Western China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“会计信息形式质量与资本市场效率”(72473012);中央高校基本科研项目“工业机器人应用与产品市场表现的研究”(2024JX032)。

摘　　要：会计信息是资本市场主体进行决策的重要依据,高质量的会计信息是分析师作出准确判断的重要基础。以2011—2020年我国A股上市公司为研究样本,采用文本分析方法,实证检验会计信息形式质量对分析师预测行为的影响。结果显示,会计信息形式质量提高有利于提升预测准确度,且对非明星分析师和非行业专长分析师预测准确性正向影响更大。在高管薪酬水平较高的企业以及市场化水平较高的地区,会计信息形式质量能够提高分析师的预测准确度,进而降低股价崩盘风险。提升会计信息形式质量,需要进一步完善相关法规,规范上市公司的会计信息披露制度,同时也要加强会计人员培训,重视建立信息质量评估机制,为分析师等信息使用者理解非财务信息披露提供参考依据,促进资本市场的稳定与健康运行。Serving as a crucial foundation for decision-making by participants in the capital market,and high-quality accounting information is essential for analysts to make accurate judgments.Using a sample of A-share listed companies in China from 2011 to 2020 as research samples,this study employs text analysis methods to empirically examine the impact of accounting information representation quality on earnings forecast.The results show that the improvement of accounting information representation quality is conductive to enhance forecast accuracy,and the positive impact on the earnings forecast accuracy of non-star analysts and analysts without industry expertise is greater.Additionally,in firms with higher executive compensation level and and regions with higher marketization level,the accounting information representation quality can enhance analysts’forecast accuracy.Economic consequences studies demonstrate that the accounting information representation quality can reduce the stock price collapse risk by improving analysts’forecast accuracy.Overall,to enhance the accounting information representation quality,it is imperative to refine existing regulations and standardize the disclosure systems of listed companies.Furthermore,enhancing the training of accounting professionals and prioritizing the development of information quality assessment mechanism are essential steps.This will provide valuable insights to information users,such as analysts,to better understand non-financial information disclosures,thereby promoting the stable and healthy functioning of the capital market.

关 键 词：会计信息形式质量 文本分析 分析师预测 股价崩盘风险 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理] F233[经济管理—国民经济]