基于云模型和MAIRCA的高速铁路系统韧性评估  

High-speed Rail System Resilience Evaluation Based on Cloud Model and MAIRCA Method

作　　者：李磊[1,2] 陈斯烨[1,2] 李晨蕾 吴艳华 LI Lei;CHEN Siye;LI Chenlei;WU Yanhua(Key Laboratory of Urban Rail Transit Intelligent Operation and Maintenance Technology&Equipment of Zhejiang Province,Zhejiang Normal University,Jinhua 321004,China;College of Engineering,Zhejiang Normal University,Jinhua 321004,China;Institute of Computing Technology,China Academy of Railway Sciences Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江师范大学浙江省城市轨道交通智能运维技术与装备重点实验室,浙江金华321004 [2]浙江师范大学工学院,浙江金华321004 [3]中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司电子计算技术研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《铁道学报》2025年第3期10-15,共6页Journal of the China Railway Society

基　　金：中国工程院重大咨询研究项目(2019-ZD-39);高速铁路与城轨交通系统技术国家工程研究中心开放项目(2024KY257);金华市科技计划(2022-4-040)。

摘　　要：开展系统、有效的高速铁路韧性评估是应对风险扰动、提升风险防御能力及恢复能力的关键。基于韧性理论和PSR理论框架,识别与提炼高速铁路系统韧性评估指标。运用云模型处理专家语言值评估信息,考虑异类指标间的关联性和指标评价的波动性,引入CRITIC权重计算方法并与超标倍数法结合,提出韧性指标综合权重方法;建立基于云模型和MAIRCA法的高速铁路系统韧性评估方法,计算高速铁路系统实际状态与理想状态的总偏差,进而评估高速铁路系统的韧性水平等级,识别薄弱指标。以某高速铁路车务系统为例进行实证分析,研究结果表明:该高速铁路车务系统韧性处于较高水平,总偏差为0.041,韧性指标中应急管理状态为薄弱指标。Conducting a systematic and effective resilience assessment for high-speed rail systems is critical for addressing risk disturbances,enhancing risk defense capabilities,and improving recovery capacity.Based on resilience theory and the pressure-state-response(PSR)framework,resilience assessment indicators for high-speed rail systems were identified and refined.The cloud model was utilized to process expert linguistic value assessments,considering the correlations among heterogeneous indicators and the volatility of evaluation results.By introducing the criteria importance through intercriteria correlation(CRITIC)weighting method combined with the exceeding index method,a comprehensive resilience indicator weighting approach was proposed.A resilience assessment method for high-speed rail systems was established based on the cloud model and the multi-attribute ideal-real comparative analysis(MAIRCA)method,to calculate the overall deviation between the actual and ideal states of the high-speed rail system,followed by the evaluation of the resilience level of the high-speed rail system,and identification of vulnerable indicators.An empirical analysis was conducted using a specific high-speed rail traffic service system as an example.The results indicate that the resilience of the high-speed rail traffic service system is at a relatively high level,with a total deviation of 0.041,and with the emergency management status being identified as a weak indicator within the resilience indicators.

关 键 词：高速铁路系统 运营安全管理 韧性评估 MAIRCA方法 云模型 

分 类 号：U298.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]