贝叶斯网络在消费品安全风险评估中的应用思考  

Application of Bayesian Networks in Consumer Product Safety and Risk Assessment

作　　者：石念 SHI Nian(Shanghai Institute of Quality and Standardization)

机构地区：[1]上海市质量和标准化研究院

出　　处：《标准科学》2025年第3期106-112,共7页Standard Science

摘　　要：【目的】当前,在消费品安全风险评估实践中,国内外主要采用风险矩阵法来判定风险类别,并以此作为决策参考,然而,该方法在风险等级判定方面存在不足。【方法】引入贝叶斯网络(BNs)的思路,提出一种改进的消费品安全风险评估方法,该方法可解决风险矩阵法在风险等级判定方面的局限性。【结果】通过对比贝叶斯网络与风险矩阵法,详细阐述了贝叶斯网络在消费品安全风险评估中的应用优势,并借助一个简单的贝叶斯网络分析案例,展现了其对欧盟官方典型的消费品风险评估方法(RAPEX风险矩阵法)的优化和改进。【结论】利用贝叶斯网络思路可以优化和改进RAPEX风险矩阵法,提供了量化和可验证的风险等级判定结果,这不仅增强了风险管理决策的科学性和可靠性,还提升了监管资源的利用效率。[Objective]Currently,in the practice of consumer product safety risk assessment,the risk matrix method is mainly used at home and abroad to determine the risk category,and serves as reference for decision-making;however,this method has limitations in risk level determination.[Methods]Tries to introduce the idea of Bayesian Networks(BNs),and puts forward a kind of improved consumer product safety risk assessment method,which can solve the limitations of the risk matrix method in risk determination.[Results]By comparing the risk matrix method and BNs,the advantages of the application of the BNs in the risk assessment of consumer product safety are elaborated in detail,and the optimization and improvement of the typical EU consumer product risk assessment method(RAPEX)is shown with the help of a simple case study of the BNs.[Conclusion]The use of the BNs idea can optimize the RAPEX risk matrix method,providing quantitative and auditable risk level determination results,which not only enhances the science and reliability of risk management decisions,but also improves the efficiency of the use of regulatory resources.

关 键 词：贝叶斯网络 消费品安全 风险评估 RAPEX风险矩阵法 产品风险 

分 类 号：F27[经济管理—企业管理]