1990—2021年中国绝经后女性归因于高BMI的乳腺癌疾病负担分析与预测  

Analysis and prediction of the disease burden attributable to high BMI in postmenopausal women in China from 1990 to 2021

作　　者：何艺娟 曾智 陈思念 陆地 朱迪 徐丹[1] 李怡萱 高璐珏 HE Yi-juan;ZENG Zhi;CHEN Si-nian;LU Di;ZHU Di;XU Dan;LI Yi-xuan;GAO Lu-jue(Department of Science and Education,Taicang Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing University of Traditional Chinese Medicine,Taicang,Jiangsu 215400,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]南京中医药大学太仓附属医院科教处,江苏太仓215400 [2]南京中医药大学卫生经济管理学院,江苏南京210000

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2025年第1期75-81,共7页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：江苏省哲学社会科学重点研究基地资助项目(JKFXFK-001);苏州市“科教兴卫”青年科技项目(KJXW2022071)。

摘　　要：目的 分析1990—2021年我国绝经后女性归因于高BMI的乳腺癌疾病负担情况及变化趋势,并预测2022—2050年归因于高BMI的乳腺癌疾病负担状况趋势,以指导未来的公共卫生政策和干预措施。方法 本研究利用全球疾病负担(GBD)2021数据库的数据,选取了中国绝经后女性归因于高BMI的乳腺癌死亡人数、伤残调整生命年(DALYs)等指标。采用joinpoint回归模型分析中国女性归因于高BMI乳腺癌的死亡率和DALYs的变化趋势,并运用年龄-时期-队列模型探讨不同年龄、时期和出生队列的影响,运用BAPC包预测未来的疾病负担趋势。结果 1990—2021年中国绝经后女性归因于高BMI的乳腺癌疾病负担整体呈上升趋势,死亡人数增长了439.28%,DALYs增长了441.27%;标化死亡率和标化DALYs率均有上升(AAPC分别是23.1%和27.0%,P<0.001)。标化死亡率在95岁以上达到高峰,标化DALYs率至55~60岁年龄组达到高峰。结论 中国绝经后女性归因于高BMI乳腺癌的疾病负担呈现不断上升趋势,死亡人数和DALYs的增速高于全球,未来三十年,归因于高BMI的乳腺癌的疾病负担预计将持续增加。因此,建议加强中国绝经后女性超重和肥胖的预防和控制,提高乳腺癌的筛查率,以及开展针对性的健康教育和公共卫生干预措施。Objective To analyze the disease burden attributable to high BMI in postmenopausal women in China from 1990 to 2021,examine the trends of this burden,and predict the situation from 2022 to 2050 to guide future public health policies and interventions.Methods Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database,the study selected indicators such as the number of breast cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)attributable to high BMI among postmenopausal women in China.Join point regression models were employed to analyze trends in mortality rates and DALYs,while age-period-cohort models were used to explore the effects of different ages,periods,and birth cohorts.The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort(BAPC)package was applied to predict future disease burden trends.Results From 1990 to 2021,the overall disease burden of breast cancer attributable to high BMI in postmenopausal women in China showed an increasing trend,with the number of deaths rising by 439.28%and DALYs by 441.27%.Both the age-standardized mortality rate and age-standardized DALYs rate increased(with average annual percent changes of 23.1%and 27.0%,respectively,P<0.001).The age-standardized mortality rate peaked at over 95 years,while the age-standardized DALYs rate peaked in the age group of 55 to 60.Conclusion The disease burden of breast cancer attributable to high BMI in postmenopausal women in China shows a continuous upward trend,with increases in mortality and DALYs rates surpassing global averages.It is anticipated that this burden will continue to rise over the next thirty years.Therefore,it is recommended to strengthen the prevention and control of overweight and obesity among postmenopausal women in China,enhance breast cancer screening rates,and implement targeted health education and public health interventions.

关 键 词：乳腺癌 高BMI GBD 疾病负担 预测 

分 类 号：R737.9[医药卫生—肿瘤]