深圳市冷季流感暴发与大气颗粒物浓度关系探究  

Relationship between Influenza Outbreak Epidemic and Atmospheric Particle Concentration in the Cold Season of Shenzhen

作　　者：黄悦 杨杨 马盼[1,2] 马晓璐 李馨雨 李思俏 HUANG Yue;YANG Yang;MA Pan;MA Xiaolu;LI Xinyu;LI Siqiao(College of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu 610225,China;Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610225,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川成都610225 [2]高原大气与环境四川省重点实验室,四川成都610225

出　　处：《成都信息工程大学学报》2025年第2期232-237,共6页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(42205185);中国气象局青年创新团队资助项目(CMA2024QN15)。

摘　　要：为探究亚热带气候区冷季流感暴发风险与大气颗粒物浓度的关系,为相关疾病的防治提供科学依据,进一步丰富气象健康与交叉领域的研究,收集深圳市2013年5月至2015年12月流感暴发的疫情逐日监测数据,及同时段的常规气象观测数据与大气颗粒物浓度数据。在区分流感病毒亚型(甲流、乙流)的基础上,采用分布-滞后非线性模型DLNM,分析冷季流感暴发与两种粒径颗粒物PM1o、PM_(2.5)的关联性。结果显示:两种亚型的暴发均在冷季呈现高峰,与颗粒物在冷季的高浓度峰值基本对应;但甲流、乙流疫情暴发的时间段不完全重合,并存在年际差异。DLNM揭示,对于甲流而言,高浓度PM_(2.5)存在较强的滞后性影响,滞后11d时74.28μg/m(Po)的PM_(2.5)浓度关联的相对危险度RR可达1.85(95%CI:1.01~3.36);而PM_(10)的即时效应更强,暴发当天高浓度(90.50μg/m,Prs)关联的RR高达1.68(95%CI:1.04~2.71)。此外,大气颗粒物对乙流暴发仅存在一定的滞后效应(5~8d),例如,滞后5d浓度为56.58μg/m^(2)(Prs)的PM2.s危险度为1.22(95%CI:0.90~1.64),而90.50μg/m(Prs)的PMlo危险度高达3.17(95%CI:1.73~5.78)。综上,大气颗粒物对流感暴发疫情的影响显著,提升空气质量可一定程度降低流感传播风险。The current study explored the relationship between influenza outbreak risk and concentration of airborne particulate matter in the cold season of Shenzhen,a sub-tropical city in China,which could enrich the study in the interdisciplinary field of meteorology and health,and improve the efficiency of the influenza prevention.Our study collected the daily surveillance data of influenza outbreak in Shenzhen from May 2013 to December 2015,as well as the daily meteorological observation data and daily concentration of atmospheric particulates(PMio and PM_(2.5)).Based on differentiating two subtypes of influenza virus(influenza-A and influenza-B),we analyzed the association between influenza outbreaks and the two kinds of particulate matter in the cold season of Shenzhen.The Distributed-Lag Nonlinear Model(DLNM)was adopted.The results showed that,the peaks of influenza subtypes generally occurred simultaneously with the high concentrations of particulate matter in the cold season.However,the outbreaks of influenza-A and influenza-B epidemics did not coincide completely,some inter-annual differences existed as well.The DLNM revealed that high PM2.s concentration had significant effects on influenza-A,e.g.,the relative risk(RR)corresponding to a 74.28μg/m of PM_(2.5)(the 90th percentile)on lag 11 d was 1.85(95%CI:1.01-3.36).In contrast,the immediate effect of PMio on influenza-A was stronger,with an RR of 1.68(95%CI:1.04-2.71)associated with a high concentration(90.50μg/m3)on the day of the influenza outbreak.However,the immediate effect of particulate matters on influenza B was not significant,they only presented some short-term lag effects on lag 5-8 d.A more prominent impact of PMio than PM2.s was revealed.For example,concerning PM_(2.5),the RR was 1.22(95%CI:0.90-1.64)for a concentration of 56.58μg/m^(2)(the 75"percentile)on lag 5 d,whereas for PMio the RR was up to 3.17(95%CI:1.73-5.78)(90.50μg/m^(2),the 75"percentile).In summary,the ambient influence of atmospheric particulate mater on the influenza outbreak wa

关 键 词：流感暴发疫情 大气颗粒物 暴露-反应关系 时间序列模型 冷季 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]