共建“一带一路”的经济外交系统耦合——基于开放复杂巨系统的分析  

System Coupling of Economic Diplomacy in the Belt and Road Initiative Cooperation:An Analysis Based on Open Complex Giant Systems

作　　者：张晗 赵磊[1] ZHANG Han;ZHAO Lei

机构地区：[1]中共中央党校(国家行政学院)国际战略研究院,北京100091

出　　处：《东北亚论坛》2025年第2期45-60,127,共17页Northeast Asia Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金哲学社会科学领军人才项目(22VRC047)。

摘　　要：共建“一带一路”十多年来取得历史性成就,实现了共建国家在经济上共同发展、合作共赢,促进了共建国家在政治上增进互信、凝聚共识。基于钱学森的开放复杂巨系统理论,剖析经济系统、外交系统及二者之间系统耦合的运作机制,有利于夯实“一带一路”的学理支撑。结合案例分析可以看出,共建“一带一路”推动了经济外交的系统耦合,涵盖系统内耦合和系统间耦合。其中,非线性传导机制下,经济合作产生的连锁反应推动了外交关系的多层次发展;正反馈机制下,外交行为增强了经济合作的稳定性与可靠性;适应与演化机制下,共建“一带一路”逐步构建以制度保障为基础的系统生态,推动形成国家间互相协同、自发合作的自组织结构。未来,仍需以统筹推进、协同发展的理念深化经济外交的系统内耦合和系统间耦合,助力高质量共建“一带一路”行稳致远。The Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)has achieved historic milestones over the past decade.It has facilitated mutual economic development and win-win cooperation among the participating countries while enhancing political trust and fostering consensus.Utilizing Qian Xuesen's theory of Open Complex Giant Systems to analyze the operational mechanisms of economic systems,diplomatic systems,and their inter-system coupling is beneficial for solidifying the theoretical foundation of the BRI.Case studies reveal that the BRI has facilitated the systemic coupling of economic diplomacy.encompassing both intra-system and inter-system coupling.Among them,under the nonlinear transmission mechanisms,the chain reaction generated by economic cooperation has promoted the multi-level development of diplomatic relations;under the positive feedback mechanism,diplomatic behavior has enhanced the stability and reliability of economic cooperation;under the adaptation and evolution mechanisms,the BRI cooperation has gradually constructed a systematic ecology based on institutional safeguards,and has pushed forward the formation of a self-organizing structure of mutual synergy and spontaneous cooperation among countries.In the future,it is still necessary to deepen the intra-system and inter-system coupling of economic diplomacy with the concepts of integrated promotion and synergistic development,so as to pursue steady and sustained progress in high-quality BRI cooperation,

关 键 词：一带一路 经济外交 系统论 开放复杂巨系统 系统耦合 

分 类 号：F114[经济管理—国际贸易]