政策试点不确定性与绿色差异化创新——基于碳交易政策试点的经验证据  

Uncertainty in Policy Pilots and Green Innovation Heterogeneity:Evidence from China,s Carbon Markets

作　　者：樊燕萍 王文慧 Fan Yanping;Wang Wenhui

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学会计学院,030006 [2]上海财经大学会计学院,200433

出　　处：《会计研究》2024年第12期92-106,共15页Accounting Research

基　　金：山西省科技战略研究专项(重点项目)(202204031401015);山西省财经高质量发展重大专项研究课题(SXCJGZLZD006);山西省高等学校哲学社会科学研究项目(2021W042)的资助

摘　　要：碳交易政策试点作为我国绿色转型的制度创新,兼具国际碳市场机制移植与本土政策实验的双重属性。基于碳交易政策试点在技术标准竞争和政策共识推进的不确定性特征,本文构建政策试点不确定性下企业绿色创新决策的分析框架,采用文本分析法测度企业绿色差异化创新指标。实证结果表明:碳交易政策试点显著促进试点企业实施绿色差异化创新,特别是在既有环境政策不确定性高的地区和具有较高增长机会的企业中,这一结果与增长期权理论一致。在竞争激烈的行业和缺乏政治关联的企业中,该激励效应更显著,进一步验证政策试点不确定性下企业战略响应机制的市场属性。本文探寻环境政策实际执行与政策工具预期作用路径差异背后的逻辑,为理解中国情境下政策试点的制度效能及机制提供了新的尝试。As an institutional innovation pivotal to China's green transition,the carbon emissions trading pilot scheme(CETPS)epitomizes the dual nature of institutional hybridization—simultaneously transplanting international carbon market mechanisms and engaging in localized policy experimenta⁃tion.Grounded in real options theory,this study develops a dynamic decision-making framework to analyze corporate green innovation strategies under pol⁃icy-induced uncertainty,incorporating computational text analysis to operationalize firm-level green innovation differentiation indices.Our quasi-experi⁃mental evidence reveals that CETPS participation significantly induces pilot firms to adopt heterogeneous green innovation pathways by amplifying the value of strategic growth options.This catalytic effect exhibits pronounced heterogeneity:it is magnified among firms facing elevated environmental policy uncer⁃tainty and those with stronger internationalization propensities.Furthermore,moderation analyses demonstrate that market competition intensity and politi⁃cal embeddedness jointly reshape the policy impact,corroborating the coevolutionary interplay between market mechanisms and state-mediated institution⁃al forces.This research makes three substantive contributions:First,it transcends the static equilibrium assumptions prevalent in environmental regulation literature by formalizing firms’adaptive innovation dynamics under institutional ambiguity.Second,it elucidates the micro-level transmission mechanisms through which policy pilots function as“institutional laboratories”for sustainable transition.Third,it advances contextualized understanding of Chinese firms’strategic responses to hybrid governance regimes,offering fresh insights into the contingent effectiveness of experimentalist environmental governance.

关 键 词：碳交易政策试点 政策试点不确定性 增长期权理论 绿色差异化创新 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学] X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]