绿色信贷对碳排放“双控”的影响:有调节的并行多重中介机制  

Impact of Green Credit on Carbon Emission“Double Control”:Multiple Mediation Models with Moderating Effects

作　　者：廖若凡 陈安琪 谭豪锴 Liao Ruofan;Chen Anqi;Tan Haokai

机构地区：[1]广西民族大学 [2]广西民族大学经济学院

出　　处：《开发性金融研究》2024年第6期33-47,共15页Development Finance Research

基　　金：2023年度广西民族大学校级研究生教育创新计划“绿色信贷对碳排放‘双控’的机制、影响与政策优化研究”(项目编号:gxun-chxs2024019);2024年度广西研究生教育创新计划项目“数字经济驱动、产业转移升级与碳排放‘双控’:机制、效应和实现路径研究”(项目编号:YCSW2024282)

摘　　要：“双碳”目标下,大力推动绿色信贷发展是我国经济绿色低碳转型的重要手段。本文基于2006—2022年30个省级行政区(不包含西藏和港澳台地区)的面板数据,采用固定效应模型、有调节的多重并行中介效应模型、面板门槛模型等分析绿色信贷、产业结构升级、绿色创新与碳排放“双控”的关系及作用机制。结果显示:绿色信贷的发展有助于降低碳排放总量及强度;机制分析结果表明,绿色信贷能够通过产业结构升级对碳排放“双控”产生影响;门槛检验结果表明,只有产业结构合理化达到较高水平,绿色信贷才能有效发挥节能减排作用。同时,绿色创新在产业结构升级中介效应中发挥显著的调节作用,区域异质性分析表明绿色信贷能有效促使我国东、西部地区碳排放总量及东部地区碳排放强度下降。因此,我国需要加大绿色信贷支持力度,进一步促进产业结构向低碳环保转型,同时应结合区域特点实施差异化政策。Under the goal of“double carbon”,vigorously promoting the development of green credit is an important mean for the green and low-carbon transformation of China’s economy.Based on the panel data of 30 provinces(excluding Tibet,Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2006 to 2022,this paper adopts the fixed effect model,the moderated multiple parallel mediation effect model and the panel threshold model to analyse the relationship and mechanism of green credit,industrial structure upgrading,green innovation and the“dual-carbon”goal of carbon emission.The relationship and mechanism of green credit,industrial structure upgrading,green innovation and carbon emission“dual control”are analysed using fixed effect model,adjusted multiple parallel mediation effect model and panel threshold model.The results show that the development of green credit can help reduce the total amount and intensity of carbon emissions;the mechanism analysis results show that green credit can have an impact on the“dual control”of carbon emissions through industrial structure upgrading;and the results of the threshold test show that only when the rationalisation of the industrial structure reaches a high level,green credit can effectively play the role of energy saving and emission reduction.At the same time,green innovation plays a significant regulatory role in the mediating effect of industrial structure upgrading,and the analysis of regional heterogeneity shows that green credit can effectively contribute to the reduction of total carbon emissions in the east and west of China and the intensity of carbon emissions in the east.Therefore,China needs to increase the support of green credit to further promote the transformation of industrial structure to low-carbon and environmental protection,and at the same time,differentiated policies should be implemented in accordance with regional characteristics.

关 键 词：绿色信贷 产业结构升级 绿色创新 碳排放“双控” 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学] X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]