劳动力市场冲击与中等职业教育吸引力——来自地市级面板数据的经验证据  

Labor Market Shocks and the Attractiveness of Secondary Vocational Education:Empirical Evidence from Prefecture-Level Panel Data

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作  者:李航敏[1] 刘鑫燕 陈建伟[3] LI Hang-min;LIU Xin-yan;CHEN Jian-wei(School of International Relations,University of International Business and Economics;Academy of China Open Economy Studies,University of International Business and Economics;Institute of World Influential Education Center,University of International Business and Economics)

机构地区:[1]对外经济贸易大学国际关系学院 [2]对外经济贸易大学国家对外开放研究院 [3]对外经济贸易大学世界重要教育中心研究院

出  处:《教育经济评论》2024年第6期27-45,共19页China Economics of Education Review

基  金:国家社科基金重点项目“劳动力市场灵活性与进口竞争的劳动力再配置效应研究”(22AJL006)

摘  要:劳动力市场就业变化如何影响劳动者教育和技能的获得一直是教育经济学的研究重点,本文通过检验制造业就业变化对中等职业教育在校生规模的影响来增进对上述问题的理解。利用地市级面板数据的工具变量回归结果发现,城镇制造业就业率对中等职业教育在校生规模的影响显著为正,这一结果在改变模型设定和引入滞后变量的稳健性检验中保持稳定。进一步的分析表明,中等职业教育办学的就业导向和专用型技能培养模式,使得此类教育的需求对劳动力市场的短期冲击更敏感,尤其是来自有广泛乘数效应的制造业就业变化。这意味着近年来中等职业教育部分生源流失或许与制造业就业下滑有关。因此,要推动中等职业教育高质量发展,有必要适当扩大中等职业学校毕业生的升学机会选择,同时完善职业教育适应技术变革的学科专业调整机制。How changes in labor market employment conditions affect endogenous education and skill acquisition has always been the research focus of economics of education.This paper aims to improve the understanding of these issues by examining how the enrollment size of secondary vocational education responds to changes in local manufacturing employment.By using an instrumental variable strategy based on prefecture level panel data,it shows that the regression coefficient of the manufacturing employment rate to the size of secondary vocational education size is significantly positive.Baseline results remain stable in robustness tests with changing model settings and introducing lagging variables.Furthermore,indirect evidence indicates that the employment-oriented and specific-skill training model of secondary vocational education makes its demand more sensitive to shortterm shocks in the labor market,particularly those arising from changes in manufacturing employment,which have extensive multiplier effects.This implies that the recent decline in secondary vocational education enrollment may be partly associated with the downturn in manufacturing employment.Therefore,to promote the high-quality development of secondary vocational education,it is necessary to expand the choice of opportunities for secondary vocational school graduates to advance studies,and at the same time improve the disciplinary adjustment mechanism for vocational education to adapt to technological changes.

关 键 词:中等职业教育 制造业 就业 劳动力市场 

分 类 号:F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济] G719.2[经济管理—国民经济]

 

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